01
The Valkyrie is cruising in the air,
They fly up and down,
Searching for the battlefield on earth.
The strong wind hits the sky nine,
Breaking through the clouds and rain, breaking through the sky!
This passionate BGM song ‘Flying Valkyrie’ is not echoing in the concert hall, but at an altitude of tens of thousands of meters.
The massive B52 aircraft fleet of the US military flew over the 17th parallel north and poured thousands of tons of bombs towards northern Vietnam. Ground anti-aircraft guns spewed out flames, adding orange sunsets to the sky, but they were helpless against the bombers at an altitude of tens of thousands of meters.
This was the first large-scale strategic bombing of northern Vietnam by the United States on August 5, 1964.
And the cause is the famous’ Beibu Gulf Incident ‘.
On August 1, 1964, the destroyer Maddox of the US Seventh Fleet entered Vietnamese territorial waters in the Gulf of Tonkin and engaged in a firefight with Vietnamese torpedo boats, sinking them. On the 4th, there was another exchange of fire between the two sides.
This incident gave the United States, which had always wanted to escalate the Vietnam War, an excellent reason. US President Lyndon B. Johnson pushed Congress to pass the “Gulf of Tonkin Resolution,” authorizing the president to “take all necessary military action.
From then on, the United States began large-scale airstrikes on northern Vietnam.
It has to be said that the United States has hit Vietnam’s seven inch mark.
Vietnam has a narrow territory, and southern operations heavily rely on transporting supplies from the north. However, after the US bombing, the railways in northern Vietnam were basically paralyzed. Previously, more than 3000 tons of combat supplies were transported every day, but after the railway was destroyed, the amount of supplies transported to the south sharply decreased to 100 tons.
The southern guerrilla forces are starting to struggle to sustain themselves.
Under great helplessness, Ho Chi Minh found China.
At the request of the Vietnamese government, China and Vietnam signed the Protocol on the Construction of Railways and the Provision of Transportation Equipment on April 27, 1965, and China formed the “Chinese People’s Volunteer Project Team” to enter Vietnam.
When it comes to “volunteering”, it actually means that the original Chinese Railway Corps 1st, 2nd, 12th, 13th Divisions, etc. have changed their vests, with a total of 7 detachments, 30 engineering teams, and 170000 people.
Over the course of 8 years, these 170000 people not only repaired the destroyed railways and bridges hundreds of times, but also hastily modified and built 4 railways, totaling 554 kilometers.
These railways account for 18% of the total railway mileage in Vietnam.
Especially in view of the fact that Vietnam’s original railways were all built by the French, and the railway gauge was different from China’s standard gauge railways, the Chinese railway soldiers also creatively laid a “set gauge” railway, which is simply to lay another track outside Vietnam’s meter gauge railway, so that both Vietnam’s meter gauge trains and China’s standard gauge trains can run on the road.
It was also because the Chinese railway soldiers had bombed and repaired under the American bombing that the Chinese and Soviet aid materials could be continuously transported along the railway to the north of Vietnam, and then transported to the south of Vietnam through the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which made Americans suspicious and forced them to evacuate.
However, for the victory of the Vietnamese, the Chinese railway troops also paid a huge price, with 392 officers and soldiers sacrificed, 1862 injured, and many permanently disabled.
However, the sacrifices of the Chinese railway soldiers were only exchanged for turning against each other.
In 1979, just six years after the withdrawal of Chinese railway troops, China launched a self-defense counterattack against Vietnam.
In the later stages of the war, in order to prevent the Vietnamese army from using railways to counterattack, the Chinese participating troops specifically dismantled the Hanoi Pingxiang, Hanoi Laojie, and Hanoi Tongdeng railways that had been built as aid to Vietnam before withdrawing to the country. Considering that Vietnam may collect the dismantled railway tracks to rebuild the railways, the participating troops even packed and took away the railway tracks directly after dismantling them.
After the Vietnamese returned, they found that not only the railway tracks, but also the sleepers were gone! The pursuit plan naturally fell through.
Time flies, time passes by, and in the blink of an eye, it’s 2024.
On the afternoon of November 30th, the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly of Vietnam was held, and a resolution was passed on the investment project of the North South South Railway.
Many people speculate that Vietnam may need China’s help to repair high-speed railways, based on the news that the Vietnamese Minister of Transport and Minister of Investment visited China one after another to inspect railway construction projects.
However, don’t get too excited too early. If we stick to the current plan, the high-speed rail project in Vietnam is unlikely to be completed.
This has to start with Vietnam itself.
You should know that Vietnam’s narrow territory is perfect for building railways. As long as there is a main line and a branch line to the northwest, the whole country can be connected.
So since the French occupation of Vietnam, the French government has been pondering this matter. First, in 1885, the Saigon Mito railway was built in the south, then in 1902, the Hanoi Haiphong railway was built in the north, and finally in 1936, the north-south railway was connected.
For this reason, France borrowed 200 million francs (at the time price), originally planned to repay through taxation on Vietnam, but never expected that within two years, World War II would break out and Vietnam would be occupied by Japan. After the end of World War II, there were also wars against France and the United States. After finally finishing the wars, Vietnam no longer recognized the loans from the colonial government period!
So, France, the scapegoat, was the first victim of Vietnam’s north-south railway.
However, due to Vietnam’s economic conditions and war damage, this railway has not been updated and is still in use today.
100 years have passed, and this railway has grown old.
At present, the railway speed in Vietnam is still in the same state as China in the 1980s and 1990s.
How long does it take to take a train from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi, which is over 1500 kilometers away? Depending on the situation, it usually takes 30-40 hours, while the 2200 kilometer journey from Beijing to Guangzhou in China takes 8 hours to arrive.
Getting used to the speed of China’s high-speed rail and taking a train to Vietnam is really frustrating.
The data on transportation capacity is even uglier.
Vietnam uses meter gauge, and each freight train can only carry 10-15 carriages, which is equivalent to 20-30 TEUs.
Compared to the standard gauge in China, each freight train can carry 40-50 carriages, equivalent to approximately 80-100 TEUs.
In this way, not to mention the time cost, even the transportation cost, Vietnam is more than three times that of China!
Logistics, as a bridge connecting production and consumption, has a direct impact on the price competitiveness of goods, which in turn affects the supply-demand balance of the market and the overall operational efficiency of the economy. Now that China’s logistics is so developed, it is still complained of by roast that logistics costs are high. What about Vietnam? How can emotions be tolerated?
The backwardness of Vietnam’s railways has become a bottleneck for Vietnam’s development, and it is time to solve it.
So, since 2001, Vietnam has launched a high-speed rail construction plan.
But who would have thought that this high-speed rail plan would be destroyed by a political struggle?
02
In 2001, Vietnam officially proposed the North South high-speed railway plan, strictly speaking, slightly earlier than China’s introduction of the “Medium and Long Term Railway Network Plan” in 2004.
But unlike China, Vietnam has sparked a big discussion due to the construction of high-speed rail.
This big discussion didn’t end until Ruan Jinyong came to power.
Nguyen Tan Dung, known as a radical reformist, is regarded as the most powerful political figure in Vietnam for the past 30 years since the death of former General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, Le Duan. He not only has strong influence in the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party, but also has strong connections in the military, making him the most powerful political rising star of the southern faction in Vietnam.
The first thing Ruan Jinyong did when he took office was to clarify one direction: without high-speed rail, let’s not talk about development!
So, the great discussion quickly came to an end, and the Vietnamese transportation department officially introduced the “North South High Speed Railway Plan (Đườ ng s ắ t cao t ị c B ắ c-Nam)”, proposing to start construction no later than 2014 and be completed and put into operation before 2035.
But the question arises, who will build it?
At that time, several countries including China, Germany, and Japan were interested in participating in this project, but after several games, Nguyen Tan Dung chose Japan.
To be honest, the Japanese plan for Nguyen Tan Dung is quite good. The total length of the railway is 1570 kilometers, passing through 20 provinces and cities. The entire route has 27 stations and a maximum designed speed of 300 kilometers per hour.
There are two driving plans, and if all stations stop, the journey will take 6 hours and 51 minutes.
If only stopping in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City, it only takes 5 hours and 38 minutes.
The project is scheduled to start construction in 2014 and open a 100 kilometer trial operation line in 2016. By 2020, the “Hanoi Rong City” and “Ho Chi Minh City Nha Trang” sections will be opened first, and the entire line will be completed by 2035.
More importantly, Japan can provide low interest loans for the 55.85 billion US dollars required for the project! This is a huge temptation for impoverished Vietnam, as its GDP in 2010 was only $147.2 billion.
However, this plan faces significant resistance within the Vietnamese political arena.
Why? Because the label of ‘Ruan Jinyong’ in this plan is too heavy.
Who signed the Memorandum of Understanding on the North South High Speed Railway between Vietnam and Japan? Ruan Jinyong.
Who initiated the joint railway planning group between Vietnam and Japan? Ruan Jinyong.
Who contacted Japanese companies such as Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Corporation, Sumitomo Corporation, etc? Ruan Jinyong.
Who negotiated Japan’s intention for low interest loans? Still Ruan Jinyong!
To be honest, once the high-speed railway starts construction, Nguyen Tan Dung will be the number one hero, and with this achievement, Nguyen Tan Dung can go further and become the General Secretary at the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2016 (which is why a trial operation line was launched in 2016).
We all know that the layout of power in Vietnam carried out by the 7th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam has been used to this day: the General Secretary of the Party is mainly composed of northerners centered in Hanoi, in charge of political and ideological work; The government is led by southerners centered around Ho Chi Minh City, who are in charge of economic work.
If Nguyen Tan Dung challenges the position of General Secretary with the achievements of high-speed rail, it will inevitably lead to an imbalance of political power in Vietnam and cause instability in the country.
Therefore, General Secretary Nguyen Phuc Trong must oppose this high-speed rail plan.
Of course, there is no right or wrong in this decision, it all depends on political considerations.
However, it was not aesthetically pleasing for the General Secretary to take direct action, so the task was entrusted to the Congress. According to Vietnamese law, projects with a budget exceeding 1.9 billion US dollars must obtain approval from the National Assembly.
In May 2010, Nguyen Tan Dung submitted the high-speed rail plan to the National Assembly for review, but he did not expect that on June 19, 2010, the Vietnamese National Assembly officially rejected Nguyen Tan Dung’s high-speed rail plan with a score of 284:209.
The members of Congress who voted against it also have strong reasons.
Firstly, the construction of high-speed rail is too expensive, equivalent to more than 8 years of fiscal revenue, which will burden Vietnam with heavy external debt. With this money, it is better to invest it in the education, healthcare, and power sectors that the country urgently needs (similar to the public opposition to China’s high-speed rail construction at that time).
Secondly, although there are loans, they still need to be repaid. From the perspective of high-speed rail operations around the world, except for the “Tokyo Osaka” and “Paris Lyon” lines, all other lines are losing money (including China’s high-speed rail). If the operation needs to lose money, what can be used to repay the loans?
Thirdly, the high-speed rail ticket price proposed by the Japanese is too expensive, at 70% of the plane ticket price, while the plane only takes two hours, which will lead to a result: wealthy people will spend a little more money to take faster planes. The poor can’t afford the expensive high-speed railway ticket price, and will go to take the cheap old railway. As a result, the expensive high-speed railway has been repaired, but no one sits on it.
Of course, there is another reason that cannot be put on the table. Members of parliament from central provinces are concerned that the region’s human resources, funds, and development opportunities will be absorbed by the two major economic centers in the north and south, leading to even greater poverty. Therefore, they also oppose the construction of high-speed rail.
These people are the best candidates to execute Ruan Fuzhong’s intentions.
In the end, the Vietnamese parliament demanded that the government conduct a “more careful and detailed discussion” on the high-speed rail plan.
Although there was a loophole left, as long as one is not foolish, it can be seen that the General Secretary opposed this plan, so the Vietnam high-speed rail plan was stillborn and no one dared to bring it up again in the future.
This state continued until April 2016.
That year, Nguyen Tan Dung was dismissed from his position as Prime Minister of the government, and his successor Nguyen Xuan Phuc posed no threat to Nguyen Phuc Trong. It was only then that the Vietnamese high-speed railway, which had been branded with Nguyen Tan Dung’s name, resumed planning.
In November 2017, Nguyen Xuan Phuc announced that the final plan for the North South high-speed railway would be completed and submitted to the National Assembly for review in 2019.
However, this time it was even worse, as they were repeatedly sent back for research without even reaching the stage of congressional review.
On the one hand, there is ongoing debate within Vietnam over whether to adopt a pure passenger high-speed railway (350 km/h) or a mixed use high-speed railway (200-250 km/h) scheme for high-speed rail. Some people only want to attract people, while others want to attract both people and goods.
On the other hand, some people question why the cost of repairing high-speed rail in China is 27 million US dollars per kilometer, while high-speed rail in Vietnam requires 38 million US dollars per kilometer? (This is related to the terrain of Vietnam, not completely unreasonable)
At the same time, there are also people who argue endlessly about whether to introduce social capital. If it is not introduced, the financing pressure will be too great. If introduced, ticket prices will increase and ordinary people will not be able to afford it.
After arguing and arguing, a plan was formed:
Firstly, slow down! Reduce from 350 kilometers per hour to 180-250 kilometers per hour! Reduce construction and operational costs!
Secondly, the construction will be carried out in batches, starting with the north and south, and leaving the middle section untouched. We will wait until we have enough money to build it!
Increase the number of stations to 70! And it requires mixed passenger and freight transportation, so when there are not enough passengers, we can still pull some cargo to make money! (However, this will result in an increase in uniaxial load capacity and cost)
In fact, after so many years of high-speed rail construction, any Chinese with a little common sense can see that this is a crazy plan.
The Vietnamese Ministry of Transport also knows that this plan is unreliable, so it has been hesitant to submit it to the National Assembly for review, fearing that it will be criticized again and cause another ten years of delay in Vietnam’s high-speed rail.
So, from 2001 to 2024, 23 years have passed, and the Vietnamese have made countless plans for high-speed rail, but not a single kilometer has been repaired.
However, by 2024, the Ministry of Transport of Vietnam has no time to procrastinate, because the China Laos railway has been completed!
We have all heard of the Trans Asian Railway, which started in the 1950s. It is expected to build a railway with a length of 14080 kilometers, connecting Singapore and Istanbul, Türkiye, and extending to Europe and Africa.
Speaking of which, although the China Europe Railway has not been repaired according to the original plan of the Pan Asian Railway, most of the functions of this line have been basically achieved after the interconnection of railways in various countries. The current China Europe freight trains run on this line.
However, at the southernmost point, there is still a little bit left, which is the section on the Indochinese Peninsula, Malay Peninsula, and Singapore.
In 1995, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad proposed the initiative to fully connect the Pan Asian Railway at the 5th ASEAN Summit, with Kunming as the hub and extending southward to Singapore, divided into three routes: East, Central, and West.
The eastern route runs from China to Vietnam, connecting Vietnam to Bangkok, Thailand, and then follows the Malay Peninsula to Singapore.
To be honest, Vietnam’s eastern route has the greatest advantage. It not only has low construction difficulty, but also passes through densely populated areas with many seaports along the way, giving it an advantage in transit trade.
However, due to Vietnam’s internal struggle and indecision, the eastern line could not be started for a long time. Finally, China could not wait to build the China Laos Railway in 2015.
After the completion of the China Laos Railway, Laos’ economy took off in an instant. The category of cross-border goods expanded from more than 10 in the initial stage to more than 3000, and the logistics cost decreased by 40% to 50% compared with that before the opening of the railway. Lao bosses who made their fortune by selling fruits began to buy brides in Vietnam, which caused Vietnamese to break the defense.
Upon seeing this, Thailand immediately discussed the construction of the China Thailand railway with China. After the opening of this railway, Thai specialty fruits can be transported to China in a timely manner, and Chinese industrial products can quickly enter the Thai market, allowing Thailand to smoothly ride the wave of China’s economic development.
Moreover, with the Jakarta Bandung high-speed railway as an example, it is only a matter of time before the China Thailand railway extends southward to Malaysia and Singapore, becoming a golden artery that runs through the Indochina Peninsula.
But once this line is built, won’t Vietnam be excluded? Vietnam can only watch resources, funds, and logistics flow continuously along the golden artery outside its borders, while it cannot get a share of the pie. If Vietnam does not build its own high-speed rail network as soon as possible, it will be completely abandoned by huge development opportunities.
More importantly, Vietnam’s economic growth has been sluggish in recent years, and it is no longer as thriving as in previous years. To boost the economy, large infrastructure projects are often a panacea, whether it’s Roosevelt’s New Deal or China’s large-scale infrastructure.
So from 2024 onwards, Vietnam’s high-speed rail planning suddenly accelerated, and officials from various regions began to intensively travel abroad to inspect high-speed rail, including Japan, France, China, Germany, Italy, and even South Korea.
In June 2024, Vietnamese Minister of Transport Nguyen Van Thanh announced the launch of the latest North South high-speed railway construction plan, with a designed speed of 350 kilometers per hour.
You see, the standard is high from the beginning. Once this standard is established, I’m afraid that in the future, Chinese railway construction leaders will not dare to slow down or build high-speed trains below 350, otherwise they may be criticized as “losing again, we will lose to Vietnam
This high-speed railway plan starts from Hanoi in the north and ends in Ho Chi Minh City in the south, with a total length of 1541 kilometers and passing through 20 provinces and cities. It has 23 passenger stations and 5 freight stations (there are also freight stations, which are sick!), and the planned completion date is 2035.
Prime Minister Fan Mingzheng has requested that the plan be submitted to the parliament before October and strive for approval by the end of the year.
Finally, on the afternoon of November 30th, the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly of Vietnam passed a resolution on the investment project of the North South South Railway.
At this point, Vietnam’s high-speed rail project, which had been delayed for 23 years, has finally settled.
03
Although Vietnam’s high-speed rail plan has passed parliamentary review, it is not the end, but the beginning.
Because Vietnam has returned to the problems faced by Nguyen Tan Dung in the past, who should be asked to build it?
Actually, from a technical perspective, as long as one’s brain is not bad, they know that the project should be handed over to China.
Why?
First, China is close to Vietnam and has close personnel exchanges. In the long run, if Vietnam’s high-speed railway wants to play a real role, it will eventually be incorporated into China’s high-speed railway network and the Trans Asian railway network. Now China’s high-speed railway standards have been successfully operated in the China Laos railway, and China Thailand railway is also likely to adopt Chinese standards. If Vietnam starts anew, how can it access China’s high-speed railway network?
Not to mention anything else, if Japanese technology is adopted, just one signal exchange between China and Japan standards can torture Vietnamese people to death.
If we don’t connect to the Pan Asian high-speed railway network and build a standalone north-south high-speed railway that doesn’t connect with other ASEAN countries, isn’t that a mental illness?
Secondly, China’s high-speed rail has unique technological, efficiency, and cost advantages.
The operating mileage of China’s high-speed rail in China has exceeded 45000 kilometers, enough to circle the earth. Which country in the world has such a huge high-speed rail network?
We all know that once the scale increases, the cost will come down. At present, the construction cost per kilometer of high-speed rail in China (excluding any bridge and tunnel projects) has been reduced to 17 million to 21 million US dollars, far lower than Japan’s 25 million US dollars and Europe’s 38 million US dollars. It can be said that Vietnam is poor and wants high-speed rail, and China is the most suitable.
Third, China’s high-speed railway has many successful cases overseas, such as the China Laos Railway and Ya’an Wanzhou High speed Railway. It has accumulated a lot of experience in project construction, construction efficiency, later operation and environmental protection, which can be applied to Vietnam.
What about looking at Japan again? Although we have obtained the contract from India, everyone knows what the high-speed rail in India looks like now.
So, Vietnam’s initial choice was indeed China.
In April 2024, Vietnamese National Assembly President Wang Tinghui visited China and met with China Railway Construction Chairman Dai Hegen.
In June 2024, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chiang visited China and met with Chairman of China Railway Communications and Signal Group, Lou Qiliang.
In August 2024, Vietnam’s newly appointed President Sulin visited China and signed an agreement with China to strengthen railway connectivity between China and Vietnam.
But have you noticed that although Vietnam has been constantly pushing China to build high-speed rail in Vietnam, China’s statements and reports have been very cautious and have not confirmed this news.
Even the Joint Declaration signed by the heads of state of both sides only vaguely stated that “China agrees to provide support for Vietnam in formulating the planning of the Lang Son Hanoi and Mang Street Ha Long Hai Phong standard gauge railway projects, as well as the feasibility study report of the Lao Cai Hanoi Hai Phong standard gauge railway project.
When you flip through the map, you will find that these three railways are mainly located in the north of Vietnam, belonging to the northern railway branch line, and have nothing to do with the north-south high-speed railway.
Obviously, the negotiations between Vietnam and China have not been going smoothly.
Why?
Because Vietnam needs both.
The first is money.
On July 16, 2024, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Thang met with AIIB President Kim Liqun and expressed that Vietnam has a huge demand for transportation infrastructure construction. He hoped that AIIB could provide consulting, sponsorship, and preferential loans, including $5 billion in preferential loans.
The second is to have the right to operate.
According to the general experience of the the Belt and Road project, China provides loans. After the project is completed, China will operate for 30-50 years, use the operating income to repay the loans, and return the project to the country where it is located when it is due.
However, Vietnam is not willing for China to obtain the operation rights of Vietnam’s high-speed rail. Instead, they hope to adopt the PPP model, establish a joint venture between China and Vietnam, and have the joint venture operate, with Vietnam also receiving a share of the operating income.
The third is about technology.
In October 2024, Nguyen Minh Fai, Deputy Minister of Transport of Vietnam, stated that “when choosing technology, not only cost but also the possibility of technology transfer should be considered.” “If foreign contractors participate, the prerequisite is to use goods and services produced in Vietnam to create opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises to participate
This translation means that foreign countries not only need to provide construction and funding to Vietnam, but also provide core technologies such as high-speed rail and signal systems. In this way, Vietnam can not only have autonomy in the implementation process of the project, but also master the technology, and drive Vietnam’s high-speed rail industry chain with the localization rate as a condition.
How to put it, Ruan Minghui’s words exude a honeyed confidence, comparable to Mongolia’s demand for China to provide ports for free.
More importantly, this is a chain of tricks.
You have transferred the technology of high-speed rail, but the problem is that there are a large number of tunnels to be drilled in the mountainous areas of northern Vietnam. Should the shield tunneling technology be transferred?
The high-speed railway has been repaired, but it has been found that there is not enough electricity. Should China transfer its supercritical power generation technology?
The power station has been established, but it has been found that it cannot transmit electricity. Should the ultra-high voltage technology be transferred?
You gave it, the cost is too high.
If you don’t give it, all the previous investments will go down the drain.
China has experienced this kind of trick before.
In 2011, the construction of the Jiling Hedong Light Rail Line in Hanoi, Vietnam began. The contractor was China Railway Sixth Group Co., Ltd., and the project was funded by Chinese ODA loans with a total investment of 6.1 billion yuan.
This 13 kilometer light rail, after going through various bottlenecks such as exploration, land acquisition, construction, and environmental protection, took a full 7 years to be completed.
But after completion, the Vietnamese transportation department submitted a report on the Jilin Hedong Line, which pointed out that China Railway Sixth Bureau should continue to invest 50 million US dollars to complete a series of work such as the trial operation of the light rail project.
China Railway Sixth Bureau refused, saying that the money was not included in the contract.
The Vietnamese side said that without trial operation, it is impossible to confirm the status of the light rail. If it cannot be confirmed, I will not accept or pay.
After more than two years of negotiations and ten delays in delivery, the Vietnamese side finally approached the French ACT consulting company with the intention of finding faults. However, ACT consulting company inspected the project and found it to be okay. Finally, the Vietnamese Ministry of Transport requested approval and inspection from the acceptance committee, and the project was put into use on May 1, 2021.
However, even up until now, the engineering funds for this project have not been fully settled.
At the same time, the “Hanoi Metropolitan Railway Line 3” built by the French and the “Ho Chi Minh Metro Line 1” built by the Japanese were poor in quality and slow in progress, and Vietnamese did not fart.
From this point on, we can understand Vietnam’s attitude towards Chinese projects.
So, in the face of this national level pig killing plot, the CEOs of Chinese state-owned enterprises have shown caution, no matter how good the negotiations at the national level are, they must be careful when negotiating, fearing being deceived and losing their career.
If China refuses to take the bait, Vietnam can only look for other countries.
To be honest, Vietnam probably still hopes that Japan will take over the project, after all, Japan has already surveyed the route more than a decade ago. Allowing Japanese people to do it can save a lot of survey time and increase efficiency.
So at the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between ASEAN and Japan, Fan Mingzheng specifically approached Fumio Kishida, hoping that Japan could support Vietnam in building high-speed rail.
However, Japan is not proactive in this regard.
Because Japan is no longer the same as it used to be, and is no longer willing to invest too much in infrastructure with high investment, slow repayment, and huge settlement risks. Obviously, the Indian high-speed rail project has caused a significant setback for Japan.
Japan is not proactive, while South Korea is very proactive.
In June 2024, South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl visited Vietnam and proposed that “South Korea promises to focus on supporting Vietnam to cultivate high-quality human resources, establish research and development centers and technology transfer cooperation, and provide preferential official development assistance to invest in strategic transportation infrastructure…”
Obviously, South Korea wants to eat this meat.
But what? South Korea’s high-speed rail technology is mediocre, originating from the French TGV. It has never been able to handle high-speed trains with a speed of over 300 kilometers per hour, and its own high-speed trains often overturn. The North South High Speed Railway in Vietnam is a national project that requires a higher level of technology than South Korea. How dare South Korean products take risks?
So, in the past three months, news about high-speed rail in Vietnam has been very mixed.
At one point, they talked about self funded construction, at another point, they said Japan would provide funding and technology for the project, and at another point, they said France would help with the construction. They also loudly promoted the news that the parliament had passed the high-speed rail plan.
Obviously, Vietnam is very anxious now and wants to learn from the old story of General Liu of China, playing the game of killing three scholars with two peaches, attracting people to engage in infighting, and reaping profits on their own.
However, when Vietnam plays this trick, it is completely a show of imitation.
Why? Back then, China was able to play like this because the high-speed rail market in China was large enough and had enough long-term profits. Foreign companies, out of profit considerations, knew it was a pit and wanted to jump in.
But what about Vietnam? A narrow territory, one high-speed railway is enough, and the required number of trains will not exceed 100. It was originally a one-time deal, where did the long-term profit come from?
So, everyone is not a fool and not enthusiastic.
Moreover, the high-speed rail project in Vietnam is likely to be a loss making transaction.
We calculated that Vietnam’s high-speed rail plan costs 67 billion US dollars, with 1541 kilometers to be repaired, which is approximately 43 million US dollars per kilometer (in fact, the 67 billion US dollars includes 11.85 billion US dollars in emergency funds, and the actual investment amount is only 55.41 billion US dollars, so it amounts to 36 million US dollars per kilometer)
We can take a look at the Jakarta Bandung high-speed railway built by China for Indonesia, with a total length of 142.3km. It started construction in January 2016 and will operate in October 2023, costing 7.3 billion US dollars (including bridge and tunnel projects). With China’s low-cost and full chain technology, it still requires 51 million US dollars per kilometer.
Vietnam’s geographical conditions are not as good as Indonesia’s. 10% of the mileage needs to be covered by tunnels, and 60% needs to be elevated. How is it possible to build a high-speed railway in 11 years with only 67 billion US dollars? And is it still considering inflation in the next decade?
If we really want to build, considering the costs of land acquisition, environmental protection, and bridge and tunnel engineering, the total investment may have to run towards 100 billion US dollars. If we rashly proceed, we may cry to death in the future and be criticized by the Vietnamese for disrespecting contracts and arbitrarily raising prices.
Let’s think about it, how much will Vietnam’s GDP be in 2023? What is the concept of using $100 billion to repair high-speed rail for $429.7 billion? Equivalent to China embarking on a massive project worth 30 trillion yuan!
Would it not be beneficial for China to invest 100 billion US dollars to fill islands and reefs?
And even if it’s built, can it make money?
Vietnam’s size is too small, even though the economy has developed, wealthy people are still in the minority. The passenger flow of the North South high-speed railway is questionable. Can the operating profits cover the costs? Even if there is profit, how much money can go into the hands of the investing country according to the joint venture operation plan required by Vietnam?
For this small profit, we also need to transfer technology and face the risk of Vietnam’s high-speed rail technology exports competing for the market in the future. Is it a profit or a loss?
Now you know why no matter which country has little interest in Vietnam’s high-speed rail (except for the brainy leader Yin Da), because Vietnam’s high-speed rail is a pit!
Who would be tempted if they could neither provide enough tempting conditions nor draw a large enough cake?
04
So, for Vietnam’s high-speed rail, if we honestly seek China and make a serious budget, considering the strategic need to stabilize the rear, China is not unable to take it.
But if Vietnamese people continue to harbor that inexplicable mixture of jealousy, hostility, and fear towards China, they don’t need to get used to it either.
Anyway, the China Thailand railway is about to start construction and the Pan Asian railway network has been planned. The urgent issue is not China, but Vietnam.
If Vietnam really seeks out Japan and South Korea, and Japan and South Korea also accept it, then China will definitely be happy to see its success, and both parties will be delighted.
When Vietnamese people see the cost and efficiency of Japan and South Korea, and when Japan and South Korea see the corruption and difficulties of Vietnam, I believe they will have a new understanding of each other.
Of course, if Vietnam sincerely turns back, China will still be able to help, but the issues of connectivity, standards, power supply, and even the Nansha Islands and reefs must be handled according to China’s opinions.
After all, compared to China, Vietnam is still too small in size.
If we are honest with each other, China, with its great power demeanor, may not mistreat us. But if you play tricks with China, you’re really looking for the wrong person. If China just lets it go, it can make all of Vietnam’s intentions on the high-speed rail project fall through.
After all, no matter how great the ambition of a small country is, it is still a small country.
