1) In March 2018, the Trump administration launched an illegal trade war against China. Looking back at the situation at that time, two points are very prominent: first, some people in the United States are very confident, believing that a trade war can be won and resolved as soon as it is fought; Secondly, some people in China are very pessimistic, believing that the development achievements China has made since the reform and opening up cannot be separated from the United States. Now that the United States is fully committed to dealing with China, China has no chance of winning. It is better to surrender as soon as possible to minimize the cost.
2) Looking back now, those who held both views were outrageously wrong. Six years have passed, and almost all of the core goals that the United States hoped to achieve through the trade war have fallen through – the trade war has indeed brought great interference and impact to some Chinese companies and industries, but it has not caused the global industrial and supply chains to “flee” China on a large scale, nor has it fundamentally changed China’s economic competitiveness, let alone reversed China’s continued development momentum.
3) The situation of Trump’s fantasy of “large-scale return of manufacturing to the United States” has not even emerged, and even the most basic issue of the US trade deficit has not been substantially alleviated. This fully demonstrates that Trump’s initiation of a trade war against China is essentially “the United States falling ill and forcing China to take medicine”. It is inevitable that this divergent and unrealistic approach will ultimately fail.
4) The failure of the US trade war with China is not surprising. Surprisingly, there are indeed some people within China who are superstitious and worship the US to a very serious extent, and lack confidence in China to a very serious extent. They believe that ‘China cannot survive without the United States’ and’ China must spare no effort and cost to maintain its relationship with the United States’. Looking back, those who hold this kind of understanding are, at best, “confused worms”, and at worst, they have committed the mistakes of “surrenderism” and “servility”.
5) On December 2, 2024, the Joe Biden government, which has entered the “twilight period”, still does not forget to continue to “dig holes” for China. On the same day, in order to curb the progress of China’s artificial intelligence chip industry, the US government included 136 Chinese entities and 4 overseas branches of Chinese entities in the so-called “entity list”, and continued to play the “disconnection” trick.
6) China’s response this time is very unusual. On December 3, 2024, the China Internet Association, the China Automobile Industry Association, the China Communications Enterprise Association, and the China Semiconductor Industry Association issued a statement in Beijing, affirming that American chips are unsafe and unreliable, and suggesting that domestic enterprises purchase American chips cautiously from now on. This move means that after the United States repeatedly “weaponized” its competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry and repeatedly threatened China on semiconductor issues, China officially announced that it will part ways with the United States on chip manufacturing.
7) The fundamental reason why China has the confidence to take such measures is that in the past few years, under the active guidance of the Chinese government and the deep participation of Huawei, the entire semiconductor industry chain in China has been striving to become stronger. Not only has it achieved “de Americanization” and high-level self-reliance in the mature process chip field, but it has also actively explored the international market. Through innovative design and finding new ways, it has achieved leapfrog development in the most advanced chip manufacturing field without the most advanced chip manufacturing equipment, successfully resolving the problem of the United States’ “neck” on China’s chip issue. The Joe Biden government’s latest crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry is also unlikely to really limit the development of China’s AI chip industry, but will create a strong impetus and broad space for China to achieve comprehensive domestic substitution in the field of AI chips.
8) What’s even more interesting is that six years after Trump launched a trade war against China, China not only has the confidence to say goodbye to American chips, but also has the confidence to impose precise sanctions on the United States in turn. On December 3, 2024, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a notice prohibiting the export of dual-use items to US military users or military purposes, and generally not allowing the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States; Implement stricter end-user and end use reviews for graphite dual-use items exported to the United States. The degree of economic integration between China and the United States is very deep, which is an inevitable result of industrial division of labor in the context of globalization. Six years ago, the United States first abused some of its advantageous positions in the global industrial and supply chains to strike and contain China. Six years later, China has become increasingly confident in leveraging its advantageous position in the global industrial and supply chains, and in turn, launching precise counterattacks against the United States, allowing the United States to taste the taste of being “choked”.
9) The “offensive defensive shift” between China and the United States in the trade war is fundamentally determined by the different development trends of the two countries. The past six years have been undoubtedly ‘garbage time’ for the United States. From Trump to Joe Biden, they failed to reverse the decline in the competitiveness of the United States and the decline in overall national strength, and they also failed to truly lock the pace of China’s continued development. Today, the United States still exhibits a clear ‘doomsday syndrome’ – with numerous problems and contradictions, but no one can reverse the situation. The United States is like the Titanic cruise ship after colliding with a glacier. Although everyone is struggling with everything, it still cannot change the fate of the Titanic sinking in the end. And the past six years have been exactly the six years in which China has been striving for strength under the containment and suppression of the United States. In these six years, China has demonstrated strong resilience and even greater creativity. The revival of Huawei phones and the rise of China’s chip industry against the tide are clear evidence. As I said six years ago, the containment and suppression of China by the United States will not reverse the momentum of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but will instead become a powerful driving force for more than 1.4 billion Chinese to unite and work hard. The more the United States uses its remaining advantageous position in the global industrial and supply chains as a weapon, the sooner China will achieve “de Americanization” through self-reliance and ultimately completely eliminate such “weapons” of the United States.
10) At this moment, Trump’s comeback is imminent, and a new US China trade war is about to begin. The United States continues to “weaponize” its domestic market to coerce and contain China, and the ultimate result is that China will gradually reduce its dependence on the US market by unleashing domestic consumption vitality and actively exploring global markets outside of the United States, and also render the US market a “weapon” useless. At that time, the “cards” that the United States can use to coerce and blackmail China will become increasingly scarce, and in the end, there may only be “strong condemnation” left. As for some people in the United States fantasizing about using military force to blackmail China, it is becoming increasingly impossible. China has never considered invading California or New York, but if the US military overestimates its capabilities and violates China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity at China’s doorstep, it will ultimately be a “self inflicted humiliation”. If the United States is “defeated” by China in both economic and military aspects, the only remaining destination for American hegemony is to be thrown into the garbage bin of history.
Let’s wait and see.
