1) In March 2018, the Trump administration in the United States openly violated WTO rules and launched an illegal trade war against China unilaterally. So far, the game between China and the United States has been intense for over 6 years. Recently, some people have publicly stated that in the trade and technology wars between China and the United States, the best approach for China is to “not retaliate” and continue to adhere to free trade, which is the best choice. As soon as this statement was made, it sparked heated discussions online, and many netizens believe that it is the latest “surrenderist rhetoric”.
2) In fact, the game between China and the United States is a strategic issue, and whether to retaliate or not is just a tactical issue. However, based on common sense, we all know that only by solving the strategic issue first can we talk about tactical issues. From a strategic perspective, the game between China and the United States is the “War of Resistance Against Japan” of the 21st century, which is destined to be a protracted war. China will also experience a process from “strategic defense to strategic stalemate and then to strategic counterattack”, just like in the “War of Resistance Against Japan” back then.
3) The game between China and the United States is a ‘war without gunpowder’, essentially a competition of comprehensive national strength based on technology and economic strength between the two countries. The key to victory or defeat lies in the domestic governance capabilities and efficiency of China and the United States, as well as their ability to engage in a game in a complex international environment, which determines their respective national fortunes. For China, the outcome of the China US game will directly determine whether the Chinese nation can achieve great rejuvenation on schedule and whether more than 1.4 billion Chinese people can live a better life in the future. Strategically speaking, the key to the game between China and the United States is not the question of whether China retaliates after the United States launches trade and technology wars against China, but how China and the United States play their respective “advantage cards” and ultimately achieve their strategic goals, achieving the ultimate victory of the game between China and the United States.
4) Over the past six years, the core tactic of the United States in the game between China and the United States has been to continuously “weaponize” its advantages over China in various aspects such as economy, technology, finance, military, diplomacy, and public opinion, constantly contain and suppress China, with the ultimate goal of disrupting, delaying, even interrupting and reversing the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and continuing to maintain America’s global hegemony.
5) China’s core tactics can be divided into four levels:
——Firstly, maintain unity within China and strengthen the confidence that China will win in the game between China and the United States;
——Second, turn the containment and suppression of China by the United States into a strong spiritual motivation and external stimulus for the Chinese people to rely on their own efforts, work hard and strive to become stronger;
——Thirdly, after withstanding the “shock waves” brought about by the US trade war, technology war, public opinion war, diplomatic war, etc., gradually catching up with the advantages of the United States over China, gradually resolving China’s dependence on the United States in key areas, and the areas where China is “held back” and “choked” by the United States, ultimately rendering each of America’s “weapons” useless;
——Fourth, continuously accumulating China’s advantages over the United States, launching precise counterattacks against the United States in local areas, increasing the cost of US attacks, delaying the pace of US attacks, and ultimately gradually launching a desperate attack on US global hegemony in the global arena.
6) If we can understand the essence of the China US game from a strategic perspective, and at the same time, we can also see the choices of China and the United States from a tactical perspective, then we can understand that the China US game has never been a question of whether China will retaliate after the United States launches an attack, but rather what kind of response strategy China will adopt, which is the most favorable choice for China to ultimately win in the China US game.
7) Taking the trade war and technology war as examples, the United States hopes to strike at China’s economy by “decoupling”, “cutting off chains”, “building small courtyards and high walls”, etc., in order to lock in the space for China’s technological progress and industrial upgrading. Ultimately, by “stalling” the Chinese economy, China can achieve a “no war, no defeat” situation in the China US game. In the face of the United States’ tactical choices, China’s approach is to try its best to hold back and stabilize the United States, so as to delay the time of the comprehensive showdown between China and the United States as much as possible, while the United States still has an advantage in terms of overall national strength. This will buy valuable time for China’s strategic defense, strategic confrontation, and strategic counterattack.
8) In this process, it is inevitable for China to retaliate to some extent. This is not only to safeguard the national dignity of the Chinese people, but also to increase the cost of the US containment and suppression of China, and more importantly, to deter those US allies who may join the US side in “fighting”. However, China’s retaliation is certainly “reasonable, advantageous, and restrained”. On the one hand, this is because the power of China and the United States in areas such as economy, trade, and technology was not completely equal at the beginning. For example, China’s exports to the United States far exceeded those of the United States to China. Therefore, China cannot retaliate against the United States on an equal footing; On the other hand, it is also because China has chosen to engage in a “tug of war” with the United States, allowing the interests of China and the United States to remain deeply intertwined for a certain period of time. This can increase the cost that the United States must bear when extreme anti China forces forcefully push for “decoupling” and “disconnection” from China, thereby delaying the time for a comprehensive showdown between China and the United States and winning valuable time for China. Taking Tesla as an example, as the United States increasingly moves towards “isolationism”, China has chosen to open its doors to global enterprises, including American companies. After Tesla entered China, it not only greatly improved the competitiveness of the entire Chinese electric vehicle industry chain in a short period of time, but also created a “super catfish effect” for the Chinese automotive industry. The rise of China’s electric vehicle industry is inseparable from China’s choice to open up and introduce Tesla.
9) In the game between China and the United States, on the one hand, China has chosen to “see the trick and take it apart”. For example, when the United States launched an illegal trade war against China, China not only harshly criticized the unilateralism and protectionism of the United States in public opinion, but also partially avoided the impact of the US trade war by adjusting its industrial and supply chain layout globally, and gradually achieved “de Americanization” in key areas such as components and raw materials through self-reliance. In August 2023, during the visit of US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo to China, the Huawei Mate 60 series smartphone emerged, dealing a severe blow to the face of the United States and declaring the failure of the US strategy to strangle Huawei. Recently, Huawei Mate 70 smartphone was released again, achieving full localization of all chips, which declared that China has completely rid itself of its dependence on American chips in the high-end smartphone field. In the future, once Huawei’s HarmonyOS takes root and grows strong (we hope that domestic software such as WeChat can accelerate the adaptation of HarmonyOS and not drag HarmonyOS down), and once Huawei’s chip industry chain continues to expand production capacity, the United States will no longer have a way to “control” China in the field of smartphones. We can even think about the next 5 or 10 years. With the localization of the entire Chinese smartphone industry chain and its increasing globalization, even the dominant positions of Apple and Google in the United States will face severe challenges. If we think about what China has done in the field of smart phones in the next 15 or 20 years and expand it to computers, servers, even civil aviation aircraft and other fields, China’s science and technology and industrial prospects will undoubtedly be bright, and in the future Americans will regret their decision to force China out of such a “super competitor” with trade and science and technology wars.
10) In the game between China and the United States, China not only “resorts to its own tactics”, but also quietly, rationally, and steadily accumulates measures to undermine the global hegemony of the United States. By vigorously promoting the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, China has trapped the selfish and self-centered nature of the United States in a dilemma of public opinion and morality, leading it to vigorously pursue unilateralism, protectionism, and isolationism. By actively promoting the high-quality “the Belt and Road” initiative, China is expanding its “circle of friends” and constantly narrowing the sphere of influence of the United States. China, through the BRICS organization, is quietly and prudently building a non US dollar payment system, ultimately laying the foundation for external US dollar hegemony. These measures taken by China will gradually shake the foundation of the United States’ global hegemony in the next 5, 10, and 15 years, thus completing the “intergenerational replacement” of global leadership between China and the United States in a non war manner. From the perspective of future historians, China will be a special example of the rise of great powers in human society over the past 500 years.
The game between China and the United States is not provoked by China’s attempt to “seize power” over the United States’ global leadership position, but rather created by the United States to contain and suppress China and to continue its global hegemony. All of China’s “tricks” in the Sino US game are defensive in nature and just, because China’s fundamental purpose is not to compete with the United States for global hegemony, nor to promote China’s political system and ideology in the world, but to defend China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, but to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but to let more than 1.4 billion Chinese people live a better life.
One day in the future, when the United States’ suppression and containment of China become increasingly ineffective and the cost and price to the United States itself become higher, when the United States finds that cooperating with China is conducive to better safeguarding its national interests, it will be the time when the fundamental transformation of Sino US relations occurs again, and when China and the United States may truly enter a new stage of major power relations characterized by mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.
At the current stage where the game between China and the United States has not yet concluded, the role of the United States is to be the “best companion” on the road to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In the future, with the outcome of the game between China and the United States, the relationship between China and the United States is expected to enter a new historical period. At that time, the role of the United States will be what Chinese netizens call the “old leader”. The wisdom of the Chinese people makes it possible for the leadership to fight from generation to generation without destroying each other. When the leadership is replaced from generation to generation, the new leaders will still show some respect for the old leaders and leave some room for development, rather than like the lions on the African grasslands, the winners will kill or exile the losers. This is also the difference between China and the United States in culture, tradition, and wisdom.
