1) Over the past two decades, the United States has had two overwhelming goals in the Middle East: first, to combat and prevent terrorism; Secondly, weaken any Middle Eastern regime that may pose a threat to the United States and Israel.

2) The Syrian Bashar al Assad regime has fallen in a short period of time and has not yet departed from this framework. In the past two decades, the United States first overthrew the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, and then instigated a “color revolution” that led to the untimely death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who had long held an anti American and anti Israel stance, and plunged Libya into long-term internal strife and turmoil. In addition, Egyptian President Mubarak, who had long held power in Egypt and had a certain degree of independence in front of the United States, stepped down in disappointment. Syria, on the other hand, was on the brink of collapse due to sanctions and civil war, until it was completely disrupted this time. It can be said that any Middle Eastern country that does not listen to the “greetings” of the United States and expresses the idea of being an enemy of Israel will ultimately be weakened by the joint efforts of the United States and Israel.

3) After the collapse of the Bashar al Assad government in Syria, Israel quickly occupied parts of Syrian territory, established new buffer zones, and extensively bombed the military base that the Syrian government had worked hard to accumulate for decades. This also exposed the true strategic goal of Hamas since its large-scale attack on Israel on October 7, 2023- Israel took the opportunity to retaliate against Hamas and launched attacks on major anti Israel forces in the surrounding areas, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria, dismantling the “Shia resistance arc” that Iran had established in the Middle East for more than 20 years.

4) This also once again indicates that since Trump won the US presidential election in 2016, both Israel and the United States have basically abandoned the strategy of ensuring Israel’s long-term security by promoting the Israeli Palestinian peace process, and instead mainly seek Israel’s unilateral security through severe blockade and suppression of the Palestinian people, continuous weakening of anti Israel forces in the Middle East, and division of Arab countries, without fundamentally resolving the Palestinian issue.

5) According to this logic, after Syria, the only country in the Middle East facing the greatest danger is Iran.

6) In the more than seven years since Trump took office, Iran has repeatedly encountered setbacks. As soon as Trump took office, he tore up the Iran nuclear agreement and imposed very severe sanctions on Iran. The reason behind this is that Israel is very dissatisfied with the Iran nuclear agreement reached by the Obama administration, believing that the agreement not only fails to ensure that Iran completely gives up its plan to develop nuclear weapons, but also gives Iran a breathing space. During his first term, Trump clearly expressed his intention to weaken Iran and assassinated Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Republic Guard’s Holy City Brigade. In the past few years, Iran has suffered setbacks one after another, which can be regarded as being “shamelessly exported” by Israel. The death of Iran’s former president is unclear, Hamas leader was assassinated during a visit to Tehran, and there have been multiple bloody terrorist attacks and protests with obvious “color revolutions” in Iran. All of this can be seen as concrete actions by the United States and Israel working together to weaken Iran.

7) After the outbreak of a new round of Israeli Palestinian conflict, for the Netanyahu government in Israel, if they can drag the United States down and solve the Iran issue in one fell swoop, this is the best outcome. If the United States is unwilling to get involved in another war in the Middle East due to the psychological shadow of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, then as long as it can weaken Iran as much as possible and provide sufficient deterrence against Iran, it is also acceptable. Over the past year, Israel has obtained a “suboptimal solution” on the Iranian side – although the United States is unwilling to directly engage in war with Iran, Iran itself has been severely weakened, and the “Shia resistance arc” led by Iran, except for the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, has been severely weakened.

8) However, the matter will not end here. As long as the current regime in Iran still exists, as long as Iran cannot have a pro Israel, pro Western regime, and as long as Iran does not fall into division and internal strife, Israel will not feel safe. Trump is about to take office again, and the US Israel strategy towards Iran is still sanctions, sabotage, subversion, and weakening. The downfall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria will not only have an impact on Iran by causing it to lose an anti Israel and anti American ally, but also allowing Israel to spare no effort in dealing with Iran in the near future.

9) From the downfall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria, we can also speculate on the strategy that the United States and Israel will implement towards Iran in the future – continuing to maintain and increase various sanctions against Iran, by causing the Iranian economy to wither and people’s livelihoods to become difficult, continuously increasing the dissatisfaction of the Iranian people with Iran’s current political power, and preparing for the subsequent support of anti-government forces within Iran, launching a “color revolution” in Iran, and even provoking civil war. It is very concerning that the entire country of Iran has been infiltrated into a sieve by the United States and Israel, and how long the current Iranian regime can hold on is a serious geopolitical issue.

10) Although the government of Bashar al Assad in Syria has good relations with China, Syria is still too far away from China and does not involve China’s core interests. However, Iran is different. Iran is not only a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization but also a member of the BRICS group. Due to its unique geographical location and the complex relationship it has long established with China, Iran is, in a sense, a strategic barrier to China’s west. Moreover, for many years, China has made significant investments in Iran. If there is a ‘color revolution’ in Iran or turmoil like in Libya, it will directly impact China’s core national interests. This is the issue that China must face in the ‘Trump 2.0 era’. We need to be prepared for this.