On November 25, Lithuania’s incoming new Prime Minister Jintauta Palutskas said that he sought to resume diplomatic relations with Chinese Mainland. In the past two years, Lithuania has insisted on getting together with the Gulf, which has led to a basic freeze in the relationship between the two countries.

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What exactly is going on? Today, let’s provide a detailed explanation.

In 2021, under the aegis of the United States, Inglida, then Prime Minister of Lithuania, insisted on allowing Nanako to set up a so-called “Taiwan representative office” in Vilnius, the capital, despite our strong opposition. The foreign missions we allow Taiwan to establish must start with “Taipei” and never with “Taiwan.”

Lithuania’s move was a serious provocation, so soon we imposed a series of sanctions on Lithuania and lowered the level of diplomatic relations. Of course, due to the long distance between the two countries and the small trade volume, simple trade sanctions are not painful.

One is the reward from the United States, which goes without saying;

After all this calculation, Lithuania may have made some profit, but if it doesn’t, its trade volume with China will be gone. It wasn’t much originally.

But what Lithuania did not expect was that ideals were full and reality was bone. First of all, it’s really hard to get the money from the old Americans. Antony Blinken only promised Lithuania 600 million dollars, but it’s still a loan that will be repaid when the deadline comes. Nothing else, not a single point. It should be noted that Lithuania and China have a normal annual trade volume of 2.6 billion US dollars.

After working hard for half a day, I didn’t get any benefits, and I still owe the United States a sum of money, which is equivalent to paying back to work. This is funny.

And on the other hand, the benefits given by Caicaizi are not as much as imagined, just importing a batch of Lithuanian beer, and then what? There’s nothing else, not only can’t we make up for the losses, but the promised semiconductor factory has also been delayed time and time again, and by today it has cooled down. As you can imagine with your brain, Lithuania does not have the conditions to establish semiconductor factories at all.

Talent and industrial chain foundation are not possessed.

The most crucial thing is that the pressure we are putting on Lithuania is greater than imagined. Although we cannot reach Lithuania, we can have jurisdiction over it with our long arms. Lithuania’s industrial chain system is essentially a link in the German industrial chain.

German companies have many factories in Lithuania. After Lithuania was sanctioned by us, the German Baltic Chamber of Commerce wrote to the Lithuanian government, stating that if Lithuania does not find a constructive solution to restore relations with China, Germany’s factories in Lithuania may face closure. Several German companies, including Continental Group, have relocated their factories from Lithuania.

This is a real pain, which Lithuania did not expect in advance. At one point, they expressed strong dissatisfaction and felt that Germany was surrendering to China. However, it was of no use. For German companies, choosing between the Chinese market or the Lithuanian market does not require time to think. In the end, after years of turmoil, Lithuania’s profits turned negative and it was a slap in the face.

To be frank, it’s completely unrealistic.

Palutskas had this idea. First, he was afraid that the United States would not be happy. After all, this was something that was used to pay tribute to the United States. Now if it was to be canceled, Antony Blinken would be a little unhappy. If the master was angry, it would be bad.

So, this factor is not the real obstacle.

The real obstacle is Lithuania’s own attempt to put on airs. After the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War, the Baltic states generally believed that they were at the forefront of resisting Russia’s westward advance and the first line of defense for the so-called free world.

While China is a supporter of Russia, in fact, countrymen all know that we did not favor any side in the Russian Ukrainian war and only wanted to do business, but you can’t stand Lithuania because of the deep blood feud with Russia, so you can’t think rationally.

Maintaining neutrality means aligning with Russia. We Lithuania are a noble member of the free world, and both China and Russia are barbarians. We should kneel down and beg me to restore our relationship. In our view, this is meaningless arrogance, but in Lithuania’s view, arrogance is face saving.

Not giving it face is like hitting its face, no, absolutely not.

Now the trade volume between the two countries has dropped to 1.5 billion US dollars. Even if it recovers in the future, it will only rebound to 2.6-3 billion US dollars, which is not much. There is no need to sacrifice our face for this small amount of money.

Secondly, Lithuania is also not important in China’s diplomatic strategic positioning. China’s relationship with European countries is hierarchical – the four countries of Britain, France, Germany, and Italy are the core of the relationship, with the largest size and the strongest strength in Europe. This category must be maintained well and cooperation must be deepened.

The secondary core relationships are Spain, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, and Greece, which are either relatively large (such as Spain), located at key transportation crossroads (such as Hungary), or have relatively important geopolitical values (such as Greece and Serbia).

Our strategy for this category is to maintain cooperation and deepen as much as possible.

Many people don’t know that our relationship with Poland is actually quite good, and it’s not as bad as many online marketing accounts claim. Over the years, Poland has rarely done anything to disgust us. Only the issue of the Russo Ukrainian war is one that Poland is quite dissatisfied with us, and we understand this because Poland has been annexed by Russia multiple times in its history.

But besides that, the relationship between China and Poland is still acceptable. For example, regarding Huawei’s equipment, the United States has been demanding that Poland completely ban it, but Poland has been under pressure and has not completely banned Huawei (Huawei’s equipment is indeed good and crucial). If one day the United States disappears and the conflict between China and Russia becomes prominent, Poland’s utilization value will come.

The core relationships at the third level, namely the Netherlands, Norway, and Romania, belong to ordinary relationships and cannot be considered strategic. The strategy is to maintain cooperation and avoid falling out.

And what about Lithuania? In our positioning, the third level cannot be considered.

At most, it is a fourth level relationship, which is irrelevant. Countries positioned at this level are usually like Lithuania, where strategic positioning is not important, geopolitical value is not important, and the size is not large.

Anyway, it’s nothing to ask for.

Since it’s nothing we want, it’s not worth investing too much energy and resources into. It’s best not to have a falling out, and it’s not a pity if we do. Therefore, we don’t need to rush to recover from the new Prime Minister of Lithuania’s statement. Let him wait for a few months before making a decision. There’s plenty of time to slowly grind away.

When we learn to respect our bottom line, we will restore our relationship, otherwise Lithuania will only lose more German investment. Long arm jurisdiction is not only for the United States to play, but also for us.

Emperor Wu of Han said: Kou can go, I can also go.