A railway that has been repaired for 20 years but has disappeared without a trace; Striving for dominance on the peninsula for half a century is still a pipe dream. What problems has Vietnam encountered in its development?
Today we will directly enter the topic and explain this issue clearly.
As we all know, Vietnam has a very close relationship with us. It’s not that Vietnam has a very good relationship with us, but rather that for over 2000 years since the Qin Dynasty conquered Baiyue, the Central Plains Dynasty and Vietnam have maintained a close relationship. It’s either a tribute relationship between big and small brothers, or we are fighting back against their backstabbing. In short, to some extent, Vietnam is one of the countries most influenced by China, and it may be possible to completely remove this one from many times.
It is precisely because of close ties and Vietnam’s special geographical location that we have always attached great importance to our relations with Vietnam. We once listed them as one of the most important partners in Southeast Asia. When we proposed the the Belt and Road policy, we put them at the core of our strategic position.
For example, the Pan Asian High Speed Rail Economic Circle we proposed is divided into three lines: the western line runs from China to Myanmar, the central line runs from China to Laos, and then passes through Thailand to Singapore. The eastern line is the north-south high-speed rail line that crosses the entire Vietnam.
Among these three routes, the eastern route is the most important because Vietnam is clearly superior to Thailand and Myanmar in terms of geographical location (Vietnam has a long coastline) and economic development potential. Therefore, as long as Vietnam is willing to cooperate with us to build high-speed rail, the entire Southeast Asian economic circle will be fully activated, and the process of economic integration between China and Southeast Asia will be greatly advanced.
Moreover, building high-speed rail also has great benefits for Vietnam. This is evident from Vietnam’s terrain, which is a typical north-south narrow terrain. Apart from Chile, Vietnam is the most suitable country in the world for building high-speed rail.
What’s more, Vietnam just doesn’t have a north-south high-speed railway. The railway they are using now was built by the French in 1936. The speed is only an exaggerated 50 kilometers per hour, which is roughly equal to many electric cars with unlimited speed. It is ridiculously slow. Relying on such a slow speed to carry out north-south freight transportation, not only greatly obstructs the development of Vietnam’s economy, but also goes against the integration of the two factions in Vietnam. It is very easy to split separatist forces. Therefore, building a north-south high-speed railway is absolutely beneficial to Vietnam without harm.
We thought of this, and Vietnam naturally thought of it too. Therefore, since 2005, we have been in talks with Vietnam about jointly building high-speed rail. After all, we have frequent economic and trade exchanges and are neighboring countries. Once the transportation is connected, it will definitely be a good thing for both our Yunnan and Guangxi provinces and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam.
Unexpectedly, during the project bidding process, the Vietnamese rejected our cooperation proposal on the grounds that our technology did not meet the standards, and instead sought out a higher priced Japanese. It is said that Vietnam had two considerations at that time:
The first layer is already worried about being directly connected to our railway, fearing that if we repair the railway according to our standards, we will drive straight in and threaten their safety.
The other layer is that they want to lower prices by introducing Japan, Europe, and us to compete, forcing us to agree to more outrageous conditions by using the tactic of killing three people with two peaches.
Unexpectedly, they ended up cheating on their own, and we withdrew from the bidding. Vietnam was forced to cooperate with the Japanese, who then offered a price of 56 billion US dollars. They told the Vietnamese that as long as they paid, we would start construction immediately, starting in 2014 and completing it in 2045. In just 30 years, we could repair a high-speed railway with a speed of up to 200 kilometers per hour. This is Japan’s speed!
After reading Japan’s plan, Vietnamese people are very worried. Firstly, the 30-year construction period is too long. Who knows how advanced the technology will be by then. Secondly, Vietnamese people cannot come up with 56 billion US dollars. After all, their GDP at that time was only over 100 billion US dollars per year. What’s even more amazing is that according to this plan, even if it is built, it will be a loss because it will take 2070 to maintain profit and loss.
It is precisely because of various reasons that Vietnam’s high-speed rail dream has been put on hold without action.
Until the outbreak of high-speed rail in China in 2014, whether it was high-speed rail technology or high-speed rail mileage, we became the number one on the cliff. Seeing this situation, Vietnamese people wanted to cooperate with us again, but they still talked to the Japanese while contacting us, trying to lower prices through empty branding, and asking us to give up more benefits. For example, they not only asked us to advance the money ourselves, but also demanded that we transfer the core technology. In other words, we not only had to pay for their high-speed rail repair, but also actively provide our own technology to them. Do you think this is an attitude of seeking help from others? This is simply forcing us to sign an unequal treaty. The Vietnamese dare to do things that Americans dare not do. I don’t know where their courage comes from.
So we decisively rejected their proposal and immediately made policy adjustments. We began to focus mainly on the construction of the middle line of the Pan Asian high-speed rail economic circle.
In 2015, the construction of the China Laos Railway was started, and in 2021, the China Laos Railway was completed. With the influx of a large number of Chinese goods into Laos, the economy of Laos began to take off. In just three years, the income of many Laotians doubled. It is said that they have started to buy wives in Vietnam, which has caused Vietnamese to break the defense.
Moreover, the construction of the China Thailand railway has already started in 2017 and is expected to be completed around 2027. By then, it will be possible to directly connect from Yunnan, China to Bangkok, Thailand, and the Thai economy is expected to usher in a second spring.
In addition, with Myanmar already under rectification, when the time comes, people from Laos, Thailand, and Myanmar will all go to Vietnam to buy wives. How do Vietnamese people view this matter?
Watching the surrounding countries start to bask in the light of high-speed rail, Vietnamese people begin to experience psychological imbalances. Once their inner state becomes unbalanced, they are prone to using some tricks, such as this summer when Vietnam did some unbelievable things.
First of all, on July 17, Vietnam submitted its submission to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf on the outer continental shelf of the South China Sea. According to their plan, the South China Sea will become their inland sea. We need to ask Vietnam’s consent when we go to sea from Guangdong and Hainan. Because this plan is too far off the mark, when Vietnam proposed it, we and the Americans were surprised because we really don’t know Vietnam’s motivation for doing so.
On July 30th, Vietnamese high-level officials visited India. On July 31st, the Vietnamese delegation led a delegation to visit the United States, setting a precedent for the first visit of Vietnamese officials to the United States. What’s even more outrageous is that on August 5th, Vietnam held joint military exercises with the Philippines.
It is very obvious that the countries that Vietnam has been in contact with are all countries that have disputes or do not deal with us. In addition, the outrageous South China Sea outer continental shelf delimitation case above is clearly intended to disgust us.
Why do Vietnamese people do this? Personally, I think it is the Vietnamese who learned the experience of us and the Americans.
We learned the strategy of distant communication and close attack, hoping to balance us by wooing Americans to ensure their national security.
What I learned from the Americans is the vanity card making method, which means that before negotiating with us, we should first create some weights. When negotiating with us at that time, they can say that they want us to give up the submission of the South Overseas Continental Shelf, and that they want us not to be so close to India, the United States and the Philippines. Yes, you can help us repair the high-speed railway with money, and the matter is over.
In short, Vietnamese people do have strategies in their actions, and they have a certain level of research on military tactics from ancient to modern times, both domestically and internationally. They are indeed not ordinary countries.
But when they were learning these military tactics, they overlooked a very important prerequisite, which is that whether it is long-range close attack or empty card making, the prerequisite is that they must have strong strength.
For example, in the Warring States period, the most classic use of distant and close attacks was the Qin state. While they were friendly with the distant Qi state, they also used troops against the neighboring Zhao state, which allowed them to break through one by one and reduce the cost of unifying the six states. But you don’t know what strength Vietnam has? Its behavior is somewhat similar to that of South Korea during the Warring States period, which wanted to take advantage of the two great powers of Qin and Qi through long-range and close range attacks. Once exposed, it would immediately lead to a catastrophic disaster.
Unfortunately, Vietnam did not understand this principle, so at the same time as his repeated jumping and close range attacks, we immediately made an important decision to help Cambodia build the Dechong Funan Canal.
What is the purpose of repairing this canal? I have analyzed it before, and it has two main functions:
One is to divert the Mekong River.
Because Vietnam occupies the mouth of the Mekong River, if other countries want to transport goods out of the sea by water, they must pay Vietnam a toll of $300 per container, which is like making money lying down.
In this way, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam has become an important economic and trade center in Southeast Asia, which is also one of the important driving forces for Vietnam’s rapid economic development.
As a result, we have now cut off the Mekong River upstream in Vietnam and helped Cambodia build a canal. This means that a large part of the freight volume that originally belonged to Vietnam has been diverted to Cambodia, which will lead to the disappearance of Vietnam’s Bay Area effect and a sharp decline in the economic status of surrounding cities.
More importantly, the second function is that the canal can also regulate the flow of water in the Mekong River.
The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is an important food producing area, and food definitely requires a large amount of irrigation water sources. As a result, the Dechong Funan Canal has diverted some of the water sources, and Cambodia still controls the upper reaches of the Mekong River. What do you think will happen in the future?
So since the construction of the Dechong Funan Canal began, Vietnam has faced two very awkward situations:
Firstly, the high-speed rail project is far away and it is uncertain whether it will be completed in the first half of the century.
Secondly, the status of water transport ports has also been downgraded, and the economic effects have been separated by Cambodia.
And everyone knows that whether a country’s economy can rise or not, infrastructure and transportation occupy a very important position. Vietnam originally had a very good opportunity, but they did not cherish it. They frequently used various military tactics to jump back and forth between the two major powers of China and the United States, and even for a period of time they went back and forth between the three major powers of China, the United States, and Russia to seek benefits. They thought they were very smart, but in fact, once this situation happened, they would directly become abandoned in the great power game.
