Giving 10,000 likes is a bit exaggerated, but it represents my attitude of appreciation. The last time I gave 10,000 likes was because Trump publicly promised to recognize only two genders, male and female. This represents my support for humanity returning to normal humanity and no longer indulging in animal nature. Today, I want to give another 10,000 likes because China has introduced a policy to cancel export tax rebates. This represents my support for correct and wise economic decisions and for taking precautions for the inevitable escalation of the trade war.
Trump wants to make “America great again”, but unfortunately, he doesn’t have any magic wand in his hand. What he can and will do, and what will definitely change the global economic and trade ecology, is nothing more than a crazier tariff trade war. Taking the initiative to cancel export tax rebates is undoubtedly one of the wisest choices to deal with the tariff trade war.
The logic behind the tariff trade war is that if the US manufacturing industry is strong enough to support the US economy, or even if there is excess capacity leading to a state of oversupply in American society, then using tariffs to curb imports and protect domestic industries and the market share of local goods becomes an option.
The harsh reality is that, aside from the dollar, agricultural products, and energy, the United States relies on imports for almost everything else. Even in high-tech manufacturing, the United States only possesses advantages in branding and design, with manufacturing taking place almost entirely abroad. Without the global industrial chain, production would come to a halt immediately. For instance, without rare earths from China, nuclear materials from Russia, and aerospace engines, the military, nuclear, and aerospace industries in the United States would come to a standstill.
The trade war has neither theoretical support nor practical or factual logic. On what basis does Trump dare to launch round after round of tariff trade wars?
There is actually only one reason. Trump still believes in the charm of the US dollar, thinking that the world cannot survive without desperately producing cheap goods to earn dollars. If it were not for this superstition, no normal person would dare to initiate a trade war, especially by imposing tariffs crazily, without the support of a strong manufacturing industry.
Theoretically speaking, the imposition of tariffs by the United States will only increase the cost of imported goods and services in the United States. For the world’s largest importing and consuming country, this will undoubtedly push the United States towards hyperinflation. This point has been fully proven in the practice of the trade war over the past eight years. Now, Trump is going to provoke a more frenzied trade war. How should we respond? Should we just let it go as we did in the past eight years, or can we take more proactive measures?
Over the past eight years, the aftermath of the trade war targeting China has been that some products made in China have shifted to being manufactured in Southeast Asia or South America. While China’s exports have not been significantly impacted, some of the benefits have been relinquished to Southeast Asian and South American countries through export tax rebates and price reductions. Coupled with the increase in import costs for the United States, the overall impact is that the country can absorb the cost of tariffs imposed by the United States.
Among these, the most crucial is the price concessions made by China’s exports. Without China’s abundant supply of cheap basic raw materials and industrial semi-finished products, neither Southeast Asia nor South America has the possibility to replace China’s manufacturing. Imagine what would happen if, in the face of the United States’ frenzied tariff trade war, the prices of raw materials, industrial semi-finished products, and finished goods exported by China were to rise instead of fall. For instance, what would happen if China, Russia, and other countries in the global South united to restrict the export of basic raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and copper, or if they canceled export tax rebates and raised export prices?
The rise in the prices of basic raw materials means that all industrial manufactured goods will have to rise in price. China’s steel and aluminum production are both close to 60% of the global total. If China’s steel and aluminum export prices rise, can Southeast Asian and South American countries still absorb the cost of US tariffs by substituting Chinese manufacturing? If not, where can the US import their industrial and daily necessities from?
Whether the United States can win the trade war is not determined by the availability of dollars to make purchases, but by the ability of alternative manufacturing to absorb the cost of tariffs. The premise of substitution is that China’s exports of raw materials and semi-finished products are making concessions to those so-called alternative producers through export tax rebates and price reductions.
Now, China has abolished export tax rebates, starting with raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and copper. This undoubtedly means that Chinese exports will have to increase in price, and the so-called alternative production based on importing cheap Chinese raw materials and semi-finished products will no longer have the advantage of substitution. No one in the world can escape the impact of US tariffs, and the US can no longer enjoy the cheap supply of goods from other countries, and can only bear the full cost of tariffs itself.
Interestingly, among the first batch of export commodities affected by China’s announcement to cancel export tax rebates were aluminum and copper. Following China’s cancellation of export tax rebates, Russia also announced adjustments to its industrial structure, reducing aluminum production by 25%. China and Russia are the world’s largest producers of aluminum, which undoubtedly indicates how the future trend of global aluminum prices will change.
Among the more than 260 commodities for which China announced the cancellation or partial cancellation of export tax rebates, there are not only raw materials but also globally leading industrial manufactured goods, such as batteries. Almost simultaneously with China’s announcement of the cancellation of export tax rebates, Northvolt, a battery manufacturing company jointly established by Europe in Sweden with a huge investment, unexpectedly declared bankruptcy.
This is not the end. The next news is that the global price of antimony has soared sharply. Antimony is an indispensable rare metal for military manufacturing, which obviously means how significant the impact of the policy change of the world’s largest rare earth producer is on the global market.

These fragmented pieces of information certainly do not represent the entire impact, but they are sufficient to illustrate the problem. The era of influencing global asset prices through the dollar cycle and mastering global asset pricing power has ended. The real control of asset pricing should be in the hands of producers rather than capital. Today’s world is indeed returning to this common sense. Therefore, I must give this point 10,000 thumbs up.

Give a thumbs up to Trump, for America’s return from beastliness to humanity. Give a thumbs up to the cancellation of export tax rebates, for humanity will eventually return to common sense.
The cancellation of export tax rebates will inevitably bring some enterprises temporary pain. However, in order to cope with the upcoming fierce and brutal trade war, to prevent the world from working for the United States, to maintain the most basic economic order for all mankind, and for the sake of human common sense and rationality, enduring such temporary pain is worthwhile and necessary.
The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation should not and cannot be built on the foundation of a foreign-slave industry. Similarly, China’s international status today should not be based on an internationalized labor economy. For the global economy to return to common sense and rationality, and to the basic rules of fairness and justice, we need to respond forcefully to hegemony and bullying. Trade wars are inevitable, but they may not solve problems. Only by being brave, daring, and skilled in battle, and taking the initiative like this time, can we have the possibility of winning.

The world is undergoing major changes, and every day brings something exciting. I hope there will be even more exciting things to come, so I can continue to give 10,000 likes.