There is no need to worry about no one coming on the stage of internal competition. According to statistics from the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the expected number of fresh graduates in 2025 is 12.22 million. At this moment, private enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and universities are collectively silent. The record breaking 11.79 million newcomers this year can no longer be eaten, and will it reach a new high next year? Will history be refreshed again in the coming year? Cheap and in large quantities, it’s great, but people’s appetite is limited Fresh graduates are getting older year by year, and I have written about this topic over and over again. Today, I want to change my perspective. College students are not just laborers, but what else?
The vast majority are undoubtedly urban populations. Under the inevitable trend of declining total population and deep aging, the urban population and high-quality labor force are increasing, which will inevitably exacerbate difficulties such as internal competition and employment difficulties. This is undoubtedly a non virtuous cycle and a challenge that everyone must face in the next decade.

1. One carrot and half a pit

Overall, China’s total labor force has been declining since 2015, and the total population will begin to decline from 2023. This is a major trend. However, at the same time, the urban labor force and the number of labor force with college degrees or above continue to grow. For the country and society, the growth of highly educated and high-quality population represents an increasing number of high-quality labor force, which is naturally a good thing. But in a situation where the demand for talent in society and the market has not increased or even decreased, this is not necessarily friendly to every individual. At present, the admission rate of ordinary universities in China exceeds 75%. Roughly estimated: Assuming that each person takes the college entrance examination at an average age of 18, multiplying the number of births over the years by 0.75, it can be calculated that there will still be tens of millions of college graduates in China every year until at least 2036. However, at the same time, the number of vacant positions in society clearly does not reach this order of magnitude. The following chart is a prediction of the number of retirees in the country based on the birth population and retirement age over the years. The generation of baby boomer in the 1960s corresponds precisely to the retirement population of the 1920s. So recently and in the coming years, it happens to be the peak of retirement in China, with the number of retirees generally exceeding 7 million – which is also the peak period for new job opportunities in Chinese society. By the 2030s, when it comes to the collective retirement of the post-70s generation, the size of China’s annual retirement population will rapidly decline to 5 million – which is equivalent to creating 2 million fewer jobs for society every year compared to today ten years ago. At least until 2036, the education system will continue to provide millions of fresh graduates to society annually… From this perspective, the current situation is actually much better than the future.
The above is still a relatively optimistic situation… With the comprehensive implementation of delayed retirement, the phenomenon of more people but fewer pitfalls may last at least until the 2040s. If there is not enough incremental countercyclical policy adjustment, this may be the major trend for the next decade or even twenty years. Although the total population is declining and aging is deepening; But cheap and high-quality labor will also become increasingly large and cheap. In this situation, getting more and more rolled up is certain.

2. Accelerate differentiation

The previous article discussed the major trend. The latest policy direction is to accelerate the realization of this trend. There are several crucial points among them. Article 13: Optimize the allocation of regional education resources and establish a basic public education service supply mechanism that is coordinated with population changes. This means that educational resources should be matched according to population changes, and the difficulties of migrant population who have to send their children back to school in go home should be gradually solved. Article 20: Establish a positive interactive mechanism for industrial upgrading, population agglomeration, and urban development, promote the system of providing basic public services through registered household registration in the permanent residence… Accelerate the urbanization of agricultural transfer population… Promote the formation of a new intelligent and efficient governance system for mega cities, and establish a system and mechanism for the development of urban agglomeration in metropolitan areas. Article 44:… Remove the registered residence registration restrictions on insurance in the place of employment. In short, it is actually to cancel the existing registered residence system and fully implement the residence permit model with permanent residence registration as the core. The ultimate goal is to make population mobility more free and gradually improve the problem of migrant populations lacking basic welfare guarantees. This cannot be said to be a bad thing, but in doing so, the Matthew effect between different regions and the siphon effect of big cities will inevitably intensify, promoting the formation of super metropolitan areas. Here is a hypothetical model (under non strong policy intervention): Assuming that both cities A and B have a population of 20000, and city C has 200000. The same 100000 yuan, traded between two people and 20 people, has a very large difference in circulation speed. With a small population, the speed of money circulation, i.e. economic efficiency, is low. The same person can earn 1 million in 10 years in City A and complete it in 3 years in City C; Even if the cost of living for the latter is higher, there will inevitably be more money left. In that case, the labor force in cities A and B will naturally move closer to city C. The result is that the population of C city is increasing, the economy is thriving, and asset prices are rising. A. The population of cities B is decreasing and the economic efficiency is decreasing, leading to a contraction of leverage and subsequent difficulties in financing, resulting in a decline in asset prices. Then, people are more inclined to escape, accelerating the vicious cycle mentioned above. Regardless of whether the economy is prosperous or not, the principle remains the same. The ultimate result is that the existing metropolitan areas will truly become super cities with extremely large population sizes; On the contrary, third – and fourth tier cities, as well as rural areas, will become increasingly deserted. In areas with rapid population decline and sinking, there are at least two high probability expectations: 1. Spiral decline. With fewer and fewer people, expected demand and consumption power are weakening, and investment is naturally decreasing. Without investment, there will be no employment, and the lack of employment will immediately affect current consumption, leading to a vicious cycle. 2. Shift from cooperation to betrayal. More and more land grabbing betrayals such as arbitrary fines and fees will occur; The proportion of confiscated income will generally increase in areas that sink deeper. The act of killing the chicken for the egg will inevitably seriously undermine the attractiveness of investment and housing, and accelerate the escape of funds and labor. It’s also a vicious cycle. The above two situations are phenomena that occur when local populations decrease and inevitably face the expectation of decline. In recent years, these phenomena have also been reflected in some parts of Northeast China, so they are also known as “Northeastern ization”. There are also some signs of improvement in the vast northwest, north, and central regions. On one hand, the siphon effect of the metropolis is constantly fermenting, while on the other hand, the sinking areas are constantly driving people out. The two interact with each other. It is expected that in the next ten to twenty years, without strong policy regulation, while several super metropolitan areas continue to grow, most parts of the country will inevitably fall into it.

3. Possible scripts

Based on the above situation, where do you think the increasingly expanding group of college students will ultimately end up? Don’t look at these years, there have always been media outlets advocating for ‘escaping Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou’. It seems that as long as you escape, you can stay away from the inner turmoil and enjoy a more relaxed life. Regarding this, those who have experienced it can only give a sincere warning: if your family background is average, it’s best not to go back. At least for the next decade, the trend is clear, and continuing urbanization remains one of the main goals of the policy. Funds and talents will inevitably continue to concentrate in first tier cities. For grassroots, if they pursue comfort and go against the trend, they will only waste their precious time in the end. Although big cities are getting more and more crowded and cannot be said to be getting better, small places will only get worse. The future plot has already been staged in Japan. According to data from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the population of Japan will be 124.352 million in 2023, a decrease of 595000 from 2022, marking the 17th consecutive year of negative growth. However, as is currently the case in China, while the total population is decreasing, the population of core urban areas is constantly growing. For example, Tokyo has a population of nearly 14 million and has been continuously growing for 28 years; The population of the whole “Tokyo Circle” exceeds 37 million, accounting for 30% of the national population. The “Keihanshin Metropolitan Area”, second only to the Tokyo metropolitan area, has a population of over 19 million; The Nagoya metropolitan area has a population of over 9 million. Half of Japan’s population is squeezed into these three small dots. Even in the ‘lost twenty years’, when society enters a state of low desire, the term’ going to Beijing ‘still represents hope. Young people, carrying aspirations for the metropolis, flock to Tokyo one after another to explore. On the other hand, the vast majority of cities and towns in non core areas suffer from extremely severe population aging, continuous loss of young people, loss of economic vitality, and a level of desolation far exceeding the average. It’s hard to imagine how crowded China would be if half of its population were concentrated in a few major metropolitan areas. Even if several super large metropolitan areas are created in addition to the existing Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the level of congestion is probably far from comparable to Tokyo, Japan. The final details are certainly different, but the underlying logic is similar.