The US presidential election is about to be decided, and if nothing unexpected happens, our important meeting here will also announce an unprecedented fiscal stimulus plan.
The time just overlaps, which has a tactical effect of ‘the enemy doesn’t move, I don’t move’.
According to a Reuters article, Dongda University is considering approving a 10 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, of which 6 trillion yuan will be converted into debt and the remaining 4 trillion yuan will be used for land and existing commodity housing storage.

Simply put, the 6 trillion yuan raised is intended to address the debt issues of local governments. Through debt swaps, restructuring, and even repayment, it aims to make local accounts look better and avoid problems such as wage arrears, debt defaults, and damage to investment confidence.
This 6 trillion yuan debt is equivalent to a first aid kit and a driving force for transformation, which is like hanging the local accounts on the central government’s finances. At least everyone can breathe a sigh of relief, and the local government will have space to redistribute resources, accelerate industrial upgrading and economic transformation.
And the 4 trillion yuan of land and existing housing will be collected and stored, spread over the next 5 years, which is 800 billion yuan per year, with 1 million units of existing housing collected and stored. This is the government’s final move to rescue the market, which is equivalent to the central bank continuously printing money and then directly acquiring houses through the government.
The gambling element is high, but the current market is also very fragmented. The online signing volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has been increasing for four consecutive months, but the transaction price is still declining.
This indicates that both the buyer and seller have a firm attitude, and they all say ‘stupid X’ to each other. We can only wait a few months to see the answer.
That’s the question, why do our important meetings here have to be synchronized with the US election? What impact does Trump or Harris have on our stimulus plan?
The impact is quite significant.
Firstly, Trump is a businessman and many things can be traded.
For example, if he wants to avoid World War III and end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, and if the mainland takes action against WW, he will raise tariffs to 200%.
In our view, this is not a threat but rather an encouragement.
In addition, Musk is the biggest financial backer behind Trump, and China is Tesla’s largest overseas market.
Although Trump has been tough in public, as a red top businessman, he cannot ignore such vested interests.
So in practical actions, although Trump continues to exert tariff pressure and promote the decoupling of the US and Chinese economies, he will also privately open exemption channels for specific industries and companies, leaving room for US companies’ interests in China.
This approach not only meets his political needs domestically, but also reaps economic dividends, which is completely a business logic and in line with his life pursuit of prioritizing America and maximizing interests.
So when Trump takes office, our economic stimulus policies are more hedging oriented. The 10 trillion yuan fund may need to be expanded by 10% to 20%, because this fund not only needs to carry out traditional large-scale infrastructure, but also significantly increases support for new energy and technology enterprises, and the real estate market will indirectly benefit.
And Harris’ election is another version. Unlike Trump’s high-pressure policies, Harris is likely to continue Biden’s overall approach, appearing to ease tensions with you on the surface, but behind the scenes, he is giving you a shadow.
For example, rebuilding alliances through global group building, and then calling on friends to block China’s overseas markets, especially in strategic areas such as high-tech and green energy, with a focus on small knife cured meat.
This will have short-term benefits for our consumption and manufacturing industries, but it will create greater competitive pressure on emerging industries. Therefore, the 10 trillion yuan economic stimulus policy also needs to be adjusted, and funds can only be focused more on structural optimization and long-term competition, rather than simply expanding the scale.
There is still room for technological research and industrial upgrading, but it is unlikely that there will be large-scale infrastructure projects, and the scale of stimulus may also shrink. It is difficult for housing prices to rebound in a short period of time, and this wave of friends who are getting on board may have to stand guard again.
Overall, regardless of who comes to power, the economic decoupling between China and the United States cannot be reversed, and the only difference lies in whether it is a long-term pain or a short-term pain. But 10 trillion yuan of funds are on the way, which has a profound impact on every Chinese family.