Economic globalization was led and promoted by the United States after the Cold War. However, as more and more of its own problems have been exposed, the United States has transformed into the biggest obstacle to globalization and a promoter of the anti globalization process in the past 8 years.
Will globalization really come to an end and necessarily turn towards a process of anti globalization?
My answer is that the American version of globalization has really come to an end, but the Chinese version of globalization is still moving forward courageously. In the coming years, amidst the anti globalization wave that has already begun in the United States, our globalization will inevitably struggle and move forward in the face of enemy fire, ‘stepping on the land of our motherland and carrying the hope of our nation’, moving forward, moving forward, moving forward!
- Globalization of Theory and Globalization of Reality
The theoretical foundation of globalization is economic liberalism and the theory of comparative advantage. Since Smith, there has been no theory in Western economics that opposes globalization. Given this, why has the United States transformed from a former leader and promoter of globalization to its current opponent and hindrance?
Everything in this world is always perfect in theory, but reality is very fragile.
The United States’ promotion of globalization is not so much a respect for economic theory as it is driven by the needs of economic reality. The reason why the United States wants to pursue globalization is not because it respects economic theory and laws and wants to benefit all mankind, but because the hegemony of the US dollar requires globalization, and the technological advantage of the United States can also support globalization.
After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States reopened the era of petrodollars to save the dollar financial system. To support the hegemonic position of the US dollar, it is not enough to rely solely on petrodollars. It also requires the acceptance of the US dollar hegemony by the global market. So, using neoliberal economic theory to make the world accept the concept of economic globalization has become an inevitable choice.
During the period after the end of the Cold War, the United States had two major advantages in finance and technology, which was the most glorious period in American history. While laying out financial globalization, leveraging its advantageous position in the technology field, the United States has been tirelessly promoting the opening of markets to all countries around the world from the 1980s to the first decade of this century. The market that cannot be opened up by the US dollar and technology will also be blasted open by the United States with a cannon.
The United States is certainly the biggest beneficiary of the 40 year process of globalization. Not only has the US dollar become the settlement currency for global trade, but it has also become the anchor of global currencies. With its technological advantages, it has quickly occupied and led the global market, creating a large number of multinational giant enterprises. These companies, without exception, were born in the two major fields of finance and high technology, Wall Street and Silicon Valley, Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, as well as Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and so on. Any company is as wealthy as an enemy.
The United States is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary, but it may not necessarily benefit the American people. Although those giant enterprises with a market value of more than one trillion dollars are making a lot of money, they are benefiting very few people, not all Americans. The market value of several large giant companies accounts for half of the US stock market, and the glory of the financial and high-tech fields cannot conceal the overall decline of American society and the widening wealth gap caused by the increasing concentration of wealth. The division of American society is inevitably becoming increasingly severe.
Mr. Trump was born in 2016, and Mr. Trump won the election again in 2024. This is not so much a victory for Mr. Trump, but rather an inevitable result of the unprecedented dissatisfaction in the American society, which has led to serious social tears.
Mr. Trump is anti free market and anti globalization. This does not mean that globalization is wrong, but it is definitely the most appropriate scapegoat for American society. In capitalist society, no one seeks reasons from the capitalist system, only from economic policies; People will not question Western economic theories, but in reality they will definitely make choices that go against economic theory.
- The Helpless Choice of the United States: Semi globalization and Anti globalization
If the beneficiaries of globalization were only the United States itself, perhaps the wave of anti globalization would not have emerged. But the fact is that the beneficiaries of globalization are the entire human society. The United States is the biggest beneficiary, but at the same time, China is also a beneficiary, and all other countries involved in the globalization process are beneficiaries. This is the practical achievement of global economic and social development over the past 40 years, as well as the theoretical realization of globalization.
The United States opposes globalization not only because the dividends of globalization have not reached the American people and only allowed Wall Street and Silicon Valley to enjoy the super dividends, but also because the United States has seen that other countries, especially China, have also enjoyed the dividends of globalization.
Therefore, Mr. Trump should give up globalization and open up trade protectionism and isolationism. Mr. Trump’s first four-year term of office is obviously a failure. Its failure can be said to be the failure of randomly playing “eight fists”, but fundamentally, it is a failure to fight against the free market and globalization.
Joe Biden is also anti globalization, but he obviously wants to learn from Mr. Trump’s failure, change the complete denial of globalization to semi globalization, and create a “globalization without China”. Therefore, Joe Biden has set up groups everywhere with only one goal to isolate China. Unfortunately, Joe Biden also failed.
As a result, Mr. Trump’s anti globalization has once again stepped onto the political stage of the United States.
In fact, Mr. Trump and Joe Biden’s goal is to isolate China. The difference is that Joe Biden only wants to isolate China, not himself, while Mr. Trump is to isolate China, not hesitate to isolate himself first. Compared with Joe Biden, Trump is more realistic. Joe Biden’s desire to isolate China is obviously based on the illusion that the United States is still strong, while Mr. Trump’s desire to isolate himself first is based on a very clear understanding that the United States is no longer the United States, and China is no longer the China of the past. One is the ideal version that wants to kill 1000 enemies and self damage 800, and the other is the realistic version that soberly chooses to kill 800 enemies and self damage 1000.
Why can the Chinese version of globalization move forward
Globalization is the theoretical practice of comparative advantage, the efficiency requirement of global division of labor and global market, and the inevitable trend of technological and productivity development. The establishment of the global financial system and the leadership of high technology have undoubtedly been the foundation and driving force of the globalization wave in the past 40 years, but without Wall Street and Silicon Valley, the world still needs to operate and will definitely be able to operate.
Compared to the American version of globalization, China clearly does not have the financial advantage of dollar hegemony, but it has a manufacturing advantage. What is the essential difference between the two advantages?
The difference between goods and currency is true, but if we continue to trace back, it is actually the difference between capital and labor, and the difference in value theory. The fundamental question is whether labor and manufacturing create value, or capital operation creates value. Both capital and technology ultimately need to produce goods through labor to create utility and value. This is an iron law. Labor production is not simply labor itself, but a combination of capital, technology, and labor factors. This is the fundamental principle of economics that 1+1>2 and the source of value.
Trade is the flow of goods and services, and its essence is the exchange and flow of value, with currency serving as an intermediary. Without currency, transactions and flows can still proceed. But on the other hand, having currency alone cannot achieve value flow.
In the face of the inevitable crazy trade war in the future of Trump, what else should be done besides improving the manufacturing level and quality?
Establishing an international circulation mechanism for the Renminbi is clearly an urgent task. The international circulation of the Renminbi is closely related to the internationalization of the Renminbi, but they are not the same concept. The Chinese yuan may not necessarily pursue a hegemonic position like the US dollar, but it can pursue a settlement position in bilateral trade. The simplest way to establish a circulation mechanism for the Chinese yuan among global trading partners is to learn from Russia, expand the scale of currency swaps, and emphasize that exports should only be settled in Chinese yuan.
The underlying logic is that as long as what we create is good enough, we don’t have to worry about no one taking it; If someone wants it, they have to pay in RMB to purchase it; If there is no RMB, you can exchange it for RMB by selling resources to us. So, currency itself is not the fundamental issue, the fundamental issue is whether our things are good enough, so good that others will definitely want to buy them. Ultimately, it is about the level, quality, and price advantages of manufacturing and service.
Currency swaps, especially with larger economies, are a solution to urgent needs. Even if currency swaps are temporarily tied to the US dollar exchange rate, it is still advisable to settle without using the US dollar.
As long as we have manufacturing advantages, we need and have the ability to further promote globalization rather than the opposite. You should know that the goal of global trade is not to make money or any kind of money, but to develop production, create employment, and promote economic and social development. To clarify this fundamental issue, there is no need to care about what the United States wants or what the facts are. From this perspective, our competitors are not the United States at all, but manufacturing powers such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea.
Moving forward, moving forward, our banner today is Great Power Manufacturing and Great Power Precision Manufacturing. As long as we conquer one high-end manufacturing fortress after another, the ultimate victory is inevitable. America, let him go to hell with the US dollar.
