Now that Joe Biden doesn’t want to be a decent man anyway, he has also given his son a special pardon, so why not just do it or not? Before Trump comes back, play all his cards!
Trump is really worried because Joe Biden is getting more and more active in the last 46 days, just like a chicken’s blood
Trump has been holding back his big move for four years, and has carefully prepared a big gift package. Now it seems that Joe Biden is going to throw it all out!

Last time I wrote about the US China trade war, I mentioned that in 2018, Trump began a comprehensive containment and blockade of Chinese companies, and even imposed tariffs, leading to a surge in China’s foreign trade exports.
China’s export volume has skyrocketed from $2.5 trillion before the trade war to $3.4 trillion now, an increase of a full 36%!
But this is only the first big gift that Trump has given.

The second big gift brought by Trump is the rapid development of China’s chip industry.
Before the technology war, China’s self-sufficiency rate for chips was not even 5%, and our own chip companies were pitifully few, struggling to survive in the cracks, with production even negligible. However, after six years of technology war, everything has changed.
The number of chip companies in China has surged from 1698 to 46300, a full 27 fold increase.
Last year, China’s self-sufficiency rate for chips reached 23%, an increase of nearly five times.
Not just self-sufficiency, China’s chip exports reached 136 billion US dollars in 2023, becoming one of our core products for export.

Why is this happening?
Because Chinese companies have always loved to be surrounded and feared being dumped the most.
As long as Trump wants to fight a technology war, Chinese companies are laughing uncontrollably, and they are most afraid of Trump lifting sanctions.

This is a very simple truth. I have learned it in high school history textbooks. Why couldn’t Chinese ethnic enterprises develop during the Republican era?
It’s because the great powers keep dumping! As long as Chinese companies want to invest in research and development and launch their own products, British and American capital will crazily dump Chinese domestic products at low prices, monopolize the market, and then increase prices for sales.

For a simple example, why were all foreign fabrics in the Chinese market at that time, and there were no local textile companies in China?
For example, the representative of national industry, the largest Rongshi Cotton Mill, only started in 1909 and had a scale of only 18000 pieces by 1914.
And his competitor, Jardine Matheson&Co., a British capital firm, was almost 100 years ahead of him, with a scale of 60000 pieces in Shanghai alone. Combined with overseas markets, the global scale is about 400000 pieces, more than 22 times that of Rongshi Textile Factory!
Just think about it, you’ll know whose cost is cheaper.

In the 1920s, the price of Jardine Matheson was sold at 1.2 yuan/zhang, with a cost of approximately 0.3 yuan/zhang.
The cost of Rong’s yarn factory is 0.6 yuan/zhang, so Rong’s yarn factory also sells it for 1.2 yuan/zhang.
As a result, the British people said that you dare to compete with me? They started a big promotion and started selling at 0.5 yuan/zhang. Even so, they could still earn 20 cents.
Rong’s yarn factory was dumbfounded at first glance, so there’s no way to keep up. You’ll lose a penny selling at this price.

So the British bankrupted China’s own local yarn mill, and restored the price to 1.2 yuan/zhang after forming a monopoly.
All industries follow this routine, and coupled with the fact that the Nationalist government is already a comprador government representing the interests of compradors, it not only fails to protect national industries but also suppresses them. Think about it, how can Chinese enterprises withstand it?
So in the 1930s, the market was filled with foreign fabrics, noodles, rice, and paper

In the 1930s, China’s national enterprises were basically bankrupted, and the whole country became a commodity sales market for great powers. Even matches and soap were made by foreigners.
By the same token, why were there so few Chinese chip companies before the tech war, and almost no one willing to invest in domestically produced chips?
It’s actually quite simple, it’s because the United States hasn’t imposed sanctions!

Everyone has a dependency mentality, which is a weakness of human nature and there is nothing we can do about it.
The idea that buying is better than building, and renting is better than buying is very normal. It is possible to import more mature chips from abroad normally. Who would be willing to put in so much effort to develop such a long supply chain.
So, for chip manufacturers in mainland China, this is very painful and has always been the biggest problem.

The semiconductor industry of foreign capital has been developing since the 1950s, with a clear technological advantage and a well-established scale advantage.
Don’t even think about it, mobile phone manufacturers and home appliance manufacturers will definitely buy more stable and technologically mature chips. Domestic chips have never had a market, and sales scale simply cannot be achieved.
Without sales scale, domestic chips do not even have the opportunity for technical verification.

Think about it, you are Qualcomm, and you have already received an order for 50 million chips before you have even produced them;
You are a chip factory in China, only daring to have a production plan of 50000 chips. Once the chips are produced, you still need to ask your grandparents to sell them
By doing so, you will immediately know whose technology has the advantage. They are not even on the same scale as us.
Their scale is at least 200 times larger than ours! The investment in funds and technology is also over 100 times that of ours.
This gap is much larger than the spinning mill I just mentioned!
Normally, if we are given another 30 years, we will not be able to keep up with the progress of foreign countries in chip development. Well, by foreign countries, I mean all countries except China.
But if Trump dies, our opportunity has come!

The United States has gone blind and decided not to engage in dumping, but instead wants to implement blockades and sanctions, completely forgetting what Chairman Mao said:
Block it! Blockade it for ten or eight years, and all the problems in China have been solved!

So when Trump imposed a blockade, the situation immediately reversed.
Do you think if you were a major domestic automotive or robotics company and saw the experiences of Huawei or ZTE, would you panic? Do you still dare to use foreign chips with confidence? If you still rely entirely on overseas chips, as long as the United States sanctions you that day, you will have no way out and the entire supply chain will immediately collapse.
Moreover, the larger your business volume, the higher the risk of US sanctions against you. It is almost certain that as long as your scale exceeds 100 billion, the US will attack you at any time.
So, starting from 2018, major domestic manufacturers began to use domestically produced chips as much as possible, as long as there was not much difference in chip quality. At least, they began to have backup solutions for domestically produced chips.

So, after the start of the technology war, Chinese chip companies began to experience explosive growth, and various capitals crazily squeezed into this track Everyone is paying attention to chips.
The total investment amount of the third phase of the Integrated Circuit Investment Fund alone reached 344 billion yuan, mainly used to support the development of domestically produced chips in China. Do you know what this concept is?
More than 10 times the total of the past few decades!
Just in the first half of 2024, our expenditure on chip manufacturing equipment reached $25 billion. Do you know what this concept is?
This figure exceeds the total investment of South Korea, Taiwan, China and the United States, and the growth momentum continues.
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Comrades, to be honest, the rapid development of Chinese chips is certainly due to our own efforts, but who else should we thank?
Anyway, in my own opinion, there’s really no way not to thank Trump

Because he solved the fundamental problem of domestic chips. Before the technology war, few people were willing to use domestically produced chips, and Trump forced everyone to start cooperating with domestic chip manufacturers. Even if you are just starting out, everyone is willing to give you time and opportunities.
So from the beginning of the science and technology war, chips in Chinese Mainland not only began to meet the needs of mainland manufacturers, but also exported more and more
But it’s not over yet, because America is really exciting now.

Isn’t Trump always clamoring to go crazy and sanction Chinese companies when he returns to the White House?
Listening to him say that, chip manufacturers in mainland China are so happy that their mouths can’t even close! Why is that?
What are you most afraid of if you were a chip factory in mainland China?
If I were a chip factory, I would be afraid that their sanctions would suddenly stop halfway through, and not only would they stop, but they would also engage in low-priced dumping against China.

If Trump does this, the home appliance or car factories in mainland China will look at it and realize that my prediction of the situation was too pessimistic. The relationship between China and the United States is still good now. In that case, why don’t I use foreign chips? They are cheap and good.
This is what I am most afraid of, and now Trump repeatedly emphasizes: Don’t have any illusions about me, I will never give up halfway.
After hearing him say that, everyone felt relieved!

At first glance, domestic home appliance manufacturers realized that they would have to rely on themselves in the future and began to look for domestic alternative solutions. As a result, the market for mainland chip manufacturers is becoming increasingly large.
What are the advantages of Chinese electronics? Isn’t it just a unified market with a population of 1.4 billion? Once this market is established as a foundation, the chips in mainland China will continue to improve, especially rapidly achieving breakthroughs in mid to low end chips and increasing export volume

Now it’s more interesting. Trump yells every day. He is always bluffing. He looks like he can kill China every minute. Joe Biden is worried.
I just said a few days ago that Joe Biden didn’t want to be a decent man. He pardoned his sons, and Trump couldn’t handle him. Joe Biden had no worries, and began to commit suicide, trying to stir up in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East.
As a result, Trump said every day that he had Rocket to deal with China, and Joe Biden said that I could go to you. Now that I have played all your cards, I see what you can do, and I see what you can do!
Then Joe Biden began to play hard.

He originally only had the last 40 days of his term left, but now he is becoming more and more active. He has started to increase tariffs on photovoltaics in Southeast Asia, announced increased sanctions, and all Chinese companies that have nothing to do with him must be included in his sanctions list
You see how proactive he is now, maybe you think he won the election.

On December 2, the Joe Biden government announced a new round of export restrictions to China, adding more than 140 Chinese enterprises to the trade restriction list, involving semiconductor manufacturing equipment, electronic design automation tools and other semiconductor products of various types.
When Joe Biden did this, the chip manufacturers in the mainland would almost sing to him, saying: “Listen to me, thank you for warming the four seasons……”
The mainland chip manufacturers were moved to tears. When they thought of Joe Biden’s insistence on forcing Samsung and TSMC to move to the United States, they really wanted to say to Joe Biden:
Thank you so much. You should not only help us create the best development environment, but also help us kill our competitors. This is really an old iron!

And after Joe Biden did these things, China’s counterattack began.
First, the four major industry associations in China, namely the China Internet Association, the China Automobile Industry Association, the China Semiconductor Industry Association, and the China Communications Enterprise Association, solemnly warned enterprises that American chips are unsafe, unreliable, and distrustful!
As for why it’s not safe Do we need to talk about it? Think about how many people had their waists blown up by them a while ago

Seeing this, Trump was dumbfounded. He said, ‘Wait, as soon as I return to the White House, I will kill them and make them unable to use American chips.’.
But before he came back, Joe Biden played all his cards.
Then China said that there is no need for you to restrict us anymore. In the future, we cannot use American chips because they are too unsafe and unreliable
Trump was thinking of making 4 2’s in a month’s time, but let alone 4 2’s, Rocket has been thrown out. The key is that he hasn’t even made 3’s.

But after all this turmoil, China’s chip industry is completely at ease, from the investment industry to the entire industry. The next four years will definitely be the best four years!
Just wait for investment and production to soar upwards

Then China took action again, and the Ministry of Commerce strengthened its export controls on the United States.
The ban on the export of dual-use items such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and metamaterials to the United States actually existed two years ago, but now it is a super enhanced version.
Originally, it was only a restriction on exports for military purposes, but now it is also not suitable for civilian use. Moreover, all partners and supply chains are not allowed to supply to the United States and must be completely blocked.

The export restrictions imposed by the United States on China will stimulate the development of Chinese technology.
But this export restriction from China will really hurt the United States.
Because the thing restricted by China is rare earth, created by nature, and requires an extremely complex supply chain, it is not something you can easily create.

When China imposed a rare earth embargo on Japan, The Wall Street Journal wrote:
Without rare earths, we would no longer have TV screens, computer hard drives, fiber optic cables, digital cameras, and most medical imaging equipment.
The powerful magnets made of rare earths are a crucial factor in all missile targeting systems in the US defense inventory. Without rare earths, you would have to say goodbye to space launches and satellites, and the global refining system would also come to a halt. Rare earths are a strategic resource that people will value even more in the future
This matter is a long story, let’s keep it simple and talk about gallium.

Gallium has a wide range of applications and is known as the grain of the semiconductor industry. It is a basic raw material for composite semiconductors, integrated circuits, radar, TV and mobile phone screens, solar panels, and other industries. Without gallium, not only chips, but also radar and F35 cannot be produced.
Does the United States have gallium?
There are indeed, but the United States cannot extract them.

Gallium, like germanium, is an associated mineral. When you dig up a pile of soil, there may be 70% aluminum ore, 60% iron ore, and 20% phosphate ore, but the content of gallium and germanium is pitifully low, only about 0.2;
So the reason why China has strong processing capabilities for rare earths is because of its complete industrial system, which also extracts rare earths while processing other minerals Especially gallium, which was produced in China during the production of aluminum

But if the United States wants to establish a production line to extract gallium germanium, it needs to:
Firstly, to establish a production line for alumina, it is necessary to first build a production line for electrolytic aluminum;
Electrolytic aluminum is a super high energy consuming industry, and a complete production line can consume one-third of a city’s electricity consumption, which alone can make foreign countries cry;
Even if aluminum is produced, there is still severe overcapacity in the global aluminum industry;
…….

And for the seven major links of gallium, if foreign countries want to replace China, they should take it slow. Each link requires more than 10 billion yuan of investment and a large supply chain
When they invest a huge amount of money and time, and have the ability to process rare earths at a much higher price than China, the manufacturing cost of missiles in the United States will skyrocket. At that time, we can start dumping like they did before, causing all the capital invested to be lost and unable to cry.
Alright, that’s all for now.

Anyway, the trade war between China and the United States has already started a month ahead of schedule.
After the first round of trade war, China’s foreign trade exports soared and technology developed comprehensively. So, what will we gain from the second trade war?
However, Trump is really anxious now, because Joe Biden starts to play cards crazily in 46 days.
Trump has held back his great moves for four years, and now it seems that Joe Biden is going to throw them all out!

Trump roared, ‘You retire honestly and go home to rest. That’s all my cards, that’s all mine…’
Joe Biden shouted: Four two! Are you following or not?
China says: If you don’t follow, you’re awesome, keep going…
Joe Biden shouted: Rocket! Are you following or not?
China says: How about I get the right 3 first?
If China says yes to 3, then it is really yes to 3, because China is the only country in the world that covers the entire industrial chain of 41 major categories, 191 medium categories, and 525 small categories. Gallium germanium can only be considered as a pair of 3.