After nine years of warfare, Putin suffered losses one day, and he struggled to sleep.
300000 people shed their armor together, and Jews may become the big winner.
The Syrian civil war, which started in 2011, has been raging for 13 years now. As an important participant in this civil war, Russia has been militarily involved for 9 years. In the past nine years, the Russian army and the US army have raced cars, bombed ISIS, hated Türkiye, and laughed at Husky. In the end, after paying hundreds of casualties, Russia helped the retreating Syrian government forces successfully counterattack and controlled about eight tenths of an acre of land.
However, all of this glory and hardship seem to have passed by in just 12 days, as the Russian military’s 9 years of effort and investment have been in vain.
This defeat is no less embarrassing than the hasty withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan. As the saying goes, ‘One cannon fire, ten thousand taels of gold.’ Russia has been assisting the Syrian government army in fighting for so many years, but how much money has been burned? Will this wasted money make Putin the Great feel heartbroken and unable to sleep at night?
The Russian government has not publicly disclosed all their expenses in Syria, but we can piece together a rough outline from sporadic reports.
In 2015, ISIS terrorist organizations were rampant in Syria. Kurdish armed forces and free Syrian forces captured important towns in the east. At the same time, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Qatar began to strengthen their assistance to various anti government forces to actively attack. Syrian government forces were attacked from back to back, and their military strength was seriously insufficient. They were retreating in many directions, and were about to collapse. They were forced to ask Russia for military assistance.
Russia responded quickly and launched airstrikes on September 30th, officially intervening in the Syrian civil war. In the following month, the Russian military deployed 1631 fighter jets, destroying over 2000 targets and effectively containing the attacks of the opposition and ISIS. However, this military operation is not without cost.
On October 21st, CNBC website reported that Russia’s airstrikes on Syria cost approximately $4 million per day.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Igor Kanashenkov has revealed that there are currently over 50 Russian fighter jets and helicopters carrying out airstrikes in Syria. On average, fighter jets fly over Syria for more than 90 minutes per day, while helicopters fly for one hour.
From this analysis, the cost per hour for each fighter jet is approximately $12000, while the cost per hour for each helicopter is $3000. This means that Russia spends $710000 per day on the cost of using fighter jets, while the ammunition they drop costs $750000 per day.
In addition, personnel costs reach $440000 per day, and it costs $200000 per day to anchor the ship in the Mediterranean. Other support measures such as logistics, information collection, communication, and engineering also require an additional $250000 per day. This means that in order to ensure the airstrikes are carried out, Russia has to spend a minimum of $2.4 million per day.
This number is not groundless. In November of the same year, the Russian Business Consulting Daily also made a similar calculation and concluded that Russia spends $2.5 million per day. Among them, the cost of using fighter jets accounts for the majority, reaching 2.4 million US dollars, while the Russian military base in Syria also requires 160000 US dollars for meals and allowances.
In addition, Russia spent $15 million to requisition civilian ships to provide logistical support for Tartus Port, and another $2.5 million to build an airport and barracks. Four Russian warships launched “caliber” cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea, with a cost of up to 20 million US dollars.
According to Russian reports, it is estimated that by the end of 2015, the Russian military’s operations in Syria will cost 18 billion rubles (approximately 280 million US dollars). Although this figure may seem huge, it still appears insignificant compared to Russia’s defense budget of 3.2 trillion rubles (approximately 82 billion US dollars) that year. However, with the deepening of the war and the increasing complexity of the situation, the combat costs of the Russian army are also constantly rising.
For example, on November 24, 2015, a Su-24M fighter bomber of the Russian army was shot down by Türkiye’s F-16 fighter at the Turkish Syrian border, killing one pilot and injuring another, which greatly worsened the relations between Russia and Turkey.
Afterwards, the Russian military began deploying S-400 air defense missile systems in Syria and dispatched fighter jets to escort bombers on missions, further increasing the combat costs of the Russian military.
In March 2016, Russian President Putin announced that the military mission of the Russian army had been completed and the main force of the air force had been withdrawn. In less than six months of military operations, a total of 33 billion rubles (about 480 million US dollars) were spent.
At this stage, the Russian military’s combat intensity was actually relatively high, and in the years after ISIS was eradicated, the cost was not that high. If we simply calculate based on the above data, it would be 480 million US dollars in six months, 960 million US dollars in one year, and 8.64 billion US dollars in nine years.
This amount is nothing if it is put on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine. When the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict is more intense, the Russian army will spend 900 million dollars every day, and Ukraine will spend 100 million dollars every day. The amount of 8.64 billion dollars is not enough for the Russian army to fight in East Ukraine for a month.
However, Western countries generally do not believe in this data. Conservative research institutions believe that the actual spending of the Russian military should be more than twice the amount announced by Russia, while radical institutions believe it should be more than 10 times. The US Department of Defense believes that the Russian military spends at least $100 million per day in Syria.
Nevertheless, the operational costs of the Russian military are still much lower than those of the US military, with the US spending nearly $2 trillion over 16 years in Iraq, averaging $125 billion per year—— Of course, the scale of the US military’s operations cannot be compared to that of the Russian military.
However, it is shocking that despite Russia’s tremendous efforts and investments, the government forces withdrew or surrendered almost without resistance in the sudden attack launched by the opposition on November 27th this year. Even Russia’s GRU special forces have suffered significant losses. In just 12 days, the capital Damascus was captured, and Russia’s years of military investment were instantly shattered.
This defeat not only rendered Russia’s military efforts in Syria in vain, but also put immense pressure and questioning on President Putin. The Russian economy is already struggling in the quagmire of international sanctions, and now it has suffered such a significant military defeat, which undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to Russia’s national image and strength.
We don’t know if President Putin will be restless due to this huge amount of money that has gone down the drain. But what is certain is that this defeat will become an indelible stain in Russian history.
According to the latest news, the biggest winner in this Syrian civil war drama may be Israel.
Before the war, Israel had been controlling the Golan Heights in southern Syria. After the opposition began attacking government forces, the Israeli army took the opportunity to advance northward. After the opposition occupied Damascus and took advantage of the lack of defense for important military facilities, Israel launched 310 airstrikes, destroying multiple Syrian air bases and ammunition depots.
According to the latest news this afternoon on the 10th, the Israeli army has entered the Damascus area, which is only 20 kilometers away from the capital city.
If the Israeli army decides to attack Damascus, the opposition will definitely not be able to resist, which is in line with the plot of “the Qing army enters the border and drives away King Li Chuang”.
