On November 28th, a very sad news came. According to Reuters, Joe Biden urged Ukraine to reduce the minimum age of recruitment from 25 to 18 to increase the number of soldiers.

Meanwhile, a senior US official stated that ‘a simple fact is that Ukraine currently does not mobilize or train enough soldiers to compensate for losses on the battlefield’. Attention, this is a Reuters report, not a roadside agency.

It can only be said to be sad, it’s really too sad.

After King Dong’s victory, they significantly accelerated their aid to Ukraine, including the sensitive “Army Tactical Missile System” (ATACMS). When Ukraine has enough weapons in their hands and Russia is hurt, this war cannot be stopped.

And now, the Democratic Party has come up with a second trick – to let Ukraine expand its military again.

We know that Ukraine mobilized after the start of the war, with a maximum of one million troops. Before the Russian military implemented “partial mobilization” on September 21, 2022, the Ukrainian army maintained a significant military advantage.

But as the war deepened and casualties increased, the Ukrainian army’s strength gradually became insufficient. Zelensky said in early 2024 that the total number of deaths was only 31000, which even fools know is impossible.

A more reliable estimate suggests that the total number of casualties of the Ukrainian army is around 200000 to 300000, with some believing it to be over 300000. Calculated based on a 1:3 casualty ratio, the lowest number of injured personnel is 600000 and the highest is 900000. The sum of the two would have already surpassed one million, which means that the million strong army mobilized in the beginning either suffered injuries or died.

In fact, this number is quite normal because the total number of Russian casualties is also over 100000, including legitimate Russian troops, Wagner and Luton militia, as well as Chechen troops. According to a casualty ratio of 1:3, the number of injured is at least 300000, totaling 400000. It’s not surprising that the Russian army has suffered so many casualties, while the Ukrainian army has suffered 1 million casualties.

After all, this is a real war, not a small-scale security battle.

The problem is that the Russian military has suffered fewer casualties than the Ukrainian military, and also has a larger population than Ukraine, with more manpower to mobilize. As a result, Ukraine’s previously dominant forces have gradually become stretched thin.

So we can see that starting from 2024, the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army has significantly declined, and one important reason is the insufficient number of troops, which has led to loopholes in defense.

To make up for the shortage of troops, in April this year, Ozawa signed a law lowering the minimum age for conscription from 27 to 25 years old. Theoretically, there are more than 500000 people in this age range, but this is only theoretical. After all, Ukraine has a serious population outflow, and who knows how many people in this age group still stay in the country.

Finally, we didn’t collect much, and the situation is not optimistic even if we finally managed to collect it.

Because active mobilization and passive mobilization have different levels of enthusiasm, the first wave of mobilization of Ukrainian military personnel, who are over 27 years old, generally have high enthusiasm and are determined to fight Russia to the end.

As they move forward, the enthusiasm of the mobilized personnel decreases, and they hide and evade. Recruiting officials finally find them, but they are still unwilling to go to the battlefield. When they really arrive on the battlefield, their enthusiasm is generally not as high as the first wave, and there are constant deserters. So the military strength of the Ukrainian army was still insufficient, and there were still leaks everywhere.

Faced with the dilemma, the Ukrainian government’s intention is to recruit an additional 160000 soldiers, which is not a large number because Ozawa also knows that Ukrainian public opinion is really tired. At the beginning of the war, everyone was very enthusiastic. But now, people are losing hope and their enthusiasm has significantly decreased. If you forcefully mobilize another one million to several hundred thousand, a mutiny is really possible.

But the Democratic Party thinks that you are procrastinating too much. If you don’t mobilize more people, how can we continue this battle? Do you really want to surrender? For several months, there have been rumors that Joe Biden asked Ukraine to significantly reduce the mobilization age.

This matter has always been a rumor and has not been confirmed. After all, significantly reducing the mobilization age to 18 years old is not good for face, and the situation is even more serious. It is equivalent to admitting that the casualties of the Ukrainian army are very high, to the point where they have to mobilize 18-year-old personnel. If the casualties are not significant, why would you do this?

It will be difficult to win this battle.

However, with the great victory of Wang, the Democratic Party can no longer afford to worry so much about face and substance. Winning or not is not the most important issue anymore. The most important thing is not to let Russia and Ukraine cease fire or let the war end. Of course, Joe Biden also knew that to mobilize a large number of people, there must be money, and Ukraine has no money.

So Joe Biden plans to help Ukraine with another 24 billion dollars, plus the 6 billion dollars that he decided to help some time ago, a total of 30 billion dollars. As long as this money is in place, it will be enough for Ukraine to top for a long time.

The point is that Trump may not oppose this, or it is useless to oppose it.

He wants a ceasefire, but he cannot force Putin to agree to it. The best way is to let the Ukrainian army withstand the Russian army. Walter Waltz, the nominated National Security Advisor, believes that by providing assistance to Ukraine, the Russian military will be unable to advance and will have to agree to a ceasefire.

The former foreign minister of Ukraine, Kuliba, wrote an article a few days ago. His opinion is similar to that of Woltz. He also believes that Mr. Trump will increase assistance in the early days of taking office to try to make the battle line a complete stalemate. In that case, Putin can only agree to a ceasefire.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian government is already preparing for another large-scale mobilization. Let’s take a look at this news. Recently, over 23000 Ukrainian university students have been expelled. Why are so many university students being expelled?

Due to Ukraine’s mobilization policy, exemptions are allowed, such as for technical personnel in key fields and university students who do have physical illnesses. Protecting teenagers and keeping them away from war is not wrong. If there are sufficient frontline troops and there is no need to lower the minimum mobilization age, then there is no need to mobilize college students.

But now it’s obvious that there aren’t enough troops and college students need to attend, but canceling the exemption policy directly will trigger a lot of backlash. So let’s play a borderline game and get the university to expel you. If you’re not a college student, you can’t be exempted anymore.

When there are enough expelled college students, the conditions for lowering the mobilization age are ripe. By lowering the mobilization age to 18, mobilization can be carried out without canceling the exemption policy, and the resistance is relatively much smaller.

Regardless of whether Ukrainian university students are willing or not, it is their turn to attend, especially those with poor grades. Schools have more reasons to expel them and become priority targets for mobilization. Although it may be ironic, we have already reached this point. Can we turn back?

Forgive me for speaking frankly, it doesn’t exist. Today’s Ukraine is firmly bound to the Western tanks, deeply at odds with Russia, and cannot turn back. I remember when I was in college, every day was peaceful, either playing or sleeping, or doing something else. My grades are average, and I have scored 60 points in four years. I am like a student scumbag.

But nowadays, Ukrainian university students cannot live peacefully, and what awaits them may be death at any time. The contrast is so strong. Sad~It’s really sad, fully demonstrating how important the independence and autonomy of a country are.

If we don’t have independence and self-reliance, it’s us who go to the battlefield. Although I don’t reject going to the battlefield, if one day our country really needs it, I will never escape, but it must be for our country, not foolishly sacrificing my life for the West.