On the morning of December 8th, the Assad government in Syria collapsed. It only took a week from the fall of Aleppo to the escape of the Assad family to Russia. Today, we will not discuss why the Assad government, which has survived 10 years of civil war, collapsed in just one week. Instead, we will mainly talk about what the collapse of the Assad regime means.

I have mentioned in my previous Middle East article that Syria is Iran’s only land route connecting Lebanon, and Iran’s direct support for Hezbollah in Lebanon is the foundation of the Iranian Resistance Alliance. Therefore, Iran has been loyal to the Assad government since 2011. Now that the Assad government has collapsed, there is a question mark on this land passage.

Based on the current situation, the civil war in Syria is expected to continue for several years or even over a decade. So there are two possibilities here, one is that Iran takes advantage of the chaos and continues to transport supplies; One is that Iran and Hezbollah support a Syrian force to maintain transportation routes.

I personally lean towards the second possibility. Currently, all major forces in Syria are pro Iran, but the least likely is pro Iran. Therefore, at this stage, Iran and Hezbollah must start looking for forces to deploy troops in Syria to provide themselves with a lifeline. At the same time, because it is Iran supporting Hezbollah, Iran needs to contribute more here.

So at this stage, the primary task for Iran and Hezbollah is no longer to attack Israel but Syria. It means that Iran will no longer use long-range firepower to attack Israel, and at the same time, Hezbollah in Lebanon will not take the initiative to attack Israel. Both sides will adopt a defensive posture towards Israel instead of the current offensive.

But this does not mean that Israel can take the initiative to solve the hidden dangers from Hezbollah or Iran, which I will discuss later.

Following this line of thought, from now on until the Iranian alliance successfully opens a transportation channel, Hamas in Gaza can only receive minimal support from Hezbollah and Iran, so Hamas can only continue to fight Israel at a minimum level, or even cease hostilities.

Unless Hamas can find other supporters, but apart from the Iranian alliance, no other forces in the Middle East can support Hamas under pressure from the United States and Israel, so the possibility of Hamas continuing to fight in Gaza is extremely slim.

Since October 2023, Hamas and the people of Gaza have been fighting until today. Their fighting spirit has not wavered, and their resistance determination remains high. However, due to the collapse of the Syrian Assad government army, Gaza cannot continue to fight for thousands of miles. The world is unpredictable, only sighs.

Speaking of Israel. Now Netanyahu can superficially rely on the two major quagmires of Gaza and Lebanon, which is enough to establish his position as the great Prime Minister of Israel.

At present, Netanyahu can temporarily achieve the demilitarization of Gaza through a deal, while ensuring that he will no longer face high-intensity attacks from Hezbollah by doing nothing in the north.

But it is an objective fact that the Israeli army cannot defeat Hamas and Hezbollah. Even if Hamas is isolated and unsupported now, the Israeli army still needs to pay a high price to eliminate Hamas. And Hezbollah has proven with facts that even if high-level officials are beheaded, the defenders of the southern Lebanese front can still inflict heavy damage on the Israeli army.

So now Netanyahu only has bargaining chips, but having good chips and cards does not necessarily mean winning. It depends on Netanyahu’s political wisdom. I guess he will seize this opportunity to retire after achieving success.

However, internally, Netanyahu has now missed the opportunity to completely resolve the issue of the Golan Heights, which is the closest opportunity for Israel since the 1970s.

If Netanyahu had supported a pro Israel Syrian force before the fall of Damascus, then Netanyahu could ensure that the new Syrian government would not trouble Israel at least on the issue of the Golan Heights.

Given that the Golan Heights directly determine the security of northern Israel, if Netanyahu can ensure the security of the Golan Heights, he can truly become a saint of Israel.

The problem is that Netanyahu did not, but instead chose to continue using force and violence to deter Syria. There are many opposition groups in Syria, but their commonality is that they are all religious driven forces. How can such forces be pro Israel?

It is equivalent to Israel causing itself another Syrian problem before resolving Gaza and Lebanon, even if this problem will not surface for at least ten years.

Looking beyond the Syrian periphery towards the Middle East, the collapse of the Assad government is equivalent to the entire Middle East falling into a state of full-scale war. Do not think that Assad’s collapse is a just victory or a beautiful beginning. In fact, it is the beginning of the chaos and suffering in the Middle East.

At that time, a large number of Syrian refugees will begin to impact Europe, creating more refugee problems in Europe. At that time, Europe will either abandon the narrative of progress and use force to expel refugees, or continue to accept refugees despite surging public opinion. Regardless of the outcome, Europe’s narrative of progress will further collapse.

But the United States has achieved its goal, which is to create chaos in the Middle East so that there won’t be a hegemon in the region threatening the United States with oil. I don’t think Trump will start intervening in the Syrian situation after taking office, because Trump is already more concerned about domestic issues in the United States, and at the same time, if the interests of the United States in the Middle East have been realized, then what’s the point?

It is not difficult for friends here to find that the collapse of the Assad government is not the beginning of a fairy tale of victory for justice, but a prelude to greater chaos and the beginning of a game sweeping across the Middle East.

Finally, let’s talk about something metaphysical. Strictly speaking, the Assad government is the last secularized government in the entire Middle East, which means that at present, the entire Middle East is dominated by religion and governed by religious forces. So does this mean that all modernization reforms in the Middle East have failed?

I don’t think so, because history tells us to adapt to local conditions. If Western style modernization works in the West, it doesn’t mean it works in other places. Modernization that doesn’t fit the Western definition can also be considered modernization. The Middle East still has a long way to go, but this road is definitely not cut off.

Metaphorically speaking, if we mistake secularization for progressivism, does Assad’s failure imply a further failure of progressivism, just like Trump’s election? Or perhaps progressivism was wrong from beginning to end?

I also think not. There are many reasons for Assad’s failure, and I will write a long article in the future to explain it in detail. His failure does not mean a denial of progress, but rather a denial of him.

With the failure of Assad, the Middle East is about to fall into a deeper quagmire of war. The last time ISIS emerged from the Syrian civil war, what will happen this time? Similarly, the last wars in Afghanistan and Iraq created huge refugee flows for the Western world, but what about this time?

I guess that Europe, America, and Israel are celebrating the collapse of the Assad government, and this brutal pleasure will eventually end in brutality. I only hope that this brutality can be merciful to ordinary people.

Thousands of words, only sighs, goodnight, Syria.