1) After Trump was elected, he had a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and Musk was also online. This extraordinary move is actually a unique way of “rewarding based on merit” by Trump – “involving you in something that may seem important but actually only has symbolic significance
On November 12, 2024, local time in the United States, Trump, who was busy preparing a new executive team, gave Musk a more substantial “reward” – appointing Musk and Vivek Ramaswami to jointly lead the newly established “Government Efficiency Department”. According to Trump’s ideas, Musk’s main responsibility is to use an entrepreneurial approach to carry out radical reforms of the vast federal government administrative bureaucracy in the United States, including abolishing the bureaucratic system, eliminating excessive regulation, and reducing massive waste. As a result, both Trump and Musk, who have unique personalities, are creating a powerful ‘shock wave’ in the bureaucratic system of the US federal government.
2) Yesterday, I analyzed that the best framework for understanding Musk is no longer the “Silicon Valley Iron Man” (entrepreneur and entrepreneur), but the “American version of Lu Buwei” (the most influential figure in the United States). Today, we will focus on analyzing the following issues:
——What key role did Musk play in Trump’s victory in the election?
——What is the reason for Musk’s bold bet on Trump’s victory?
——What are the common policy goals of Musk and Trump?
——How does Musk view the competition between China and the United States? Will it have an impact on the game between China and the United States?
——Will Musk and Trump have a falling out?
——What impact will Musk have on American politics in the future?
3) The reason why I call Musk the “American version of L ü Buwei” is mainly because both Musk and L ü Buwei have great vision and effectiveness in betting on political figures. At the end of the Warring States period, the wealthy L ü Buwei chose an outsider (later renamed Zichu) who was a hostage and unpopular in the state of Zhao to support him as the Crown Prince of Qin, and eventually succeeded to the throne smoothly. The alien was later known as King Zhuangxiang of Qin. The idiom “rare goods can be found” tells the story of Lv Buwei’s bet on a stranger. On July 13, 2024, Trump was assassinated during a campaign event in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, shocking the United States and the world. Subsequently, Musk announced his full support for Trump. In the 2024 US presidential election, Musk played a crucial role in driving Trump’s election:
——Musk has invested approximately $200 million to support Trump’s campaign by establishing a “super political action committee,” making him one of the largest “donors” to the Republican Party;
——Musk is responsible for urging Trump’s ticket online and offline in the way of Internet enterprise operation, especially for carrying out innovative ticket urging activities in several key swing states;
——Musk used his identity as a “superstar entrepreneur+super internet celebrity” to bring huge attention to Trump;
——Musk used his controlled social media platform “X” to tirelessly cheer for Trump’s campaign;
——In the final stage of the election, in order to further help Trump urge votes, the “marketing genius” Musk launched a lottery and money collection activity by signing a petition.
Prior to the voting day of the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, Musk participated in multiple events with Trump and spared no effort in expressing support for him during interviews. It can be said that Musk is one of the most crucial supporters for Trump’s comeback this time. That’s why when Trump announced the appointment of Elon Musk as co head of the “Government Efficiency Department,” he actually referred to him as “The Great Elon Musk,” which can be translated literally as “the Great Musk” or “the Amazing Musk.” To put it mildly, it could also be called “Elon Musk the Great.
4) Musk’s “All In” bet on Trump is a very rare move among American businessmen. For most American businessmen, silently supporting one party or both parties’ presidential candidates is a common practice, as “leaving the front line behind when doing things is easier to meet afterwards. The practice of supporting a one party presidential candidate without leaving any room for retreat, like Musk, is actually a desperate move. The Democratic Party, from mouth to heart, hates Musk to the point of itching. If Trump fails to be elected, Musk will face the Democratic Party’s crazy “finding fault” (retaliation).
5) Why did Musk dare to make such a bold and unilateral “All In” bet on Trump’s election? The main reason is that:
——By July 2024, Musk had concluded that Biden was unlikely to win re-election. At this point, betting on Trump carries certain risks, but the likelihood of winning is greater than the likelihood of losing. Once the bet is won, the returns are also very large;
——Musk has been complaining in recent years that the “extreme political correctness” and LGBTQ movement supported by the Democratic Party in the United States have reached an extremely absurd level. Especially when his son chose to undergo gender reassignment surgery as a minor, it was a significant personal challenge for Musk. Therefore, choosing to support the Republican Party and oppose various “extreme political correctness” and LGBTQ movements advocated by the Democratic Party is not only a political preference for Musk, but also a choice made after experiencing the pain firsthand;
——Musk is very dissatisfied with the current situation in the United States, and the successful operation of Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has left a deep impression on him about China’s high efficiency. He once took a high-speed train to Xi’an and praised China’s high-speed railway endlessly. He also praised the achievements of China’s aerospace industry in an article. On the other hand, when he talked about the United States, he was very dissatisfied with the low efficiency of the US government, the attitude towards the hard work of the American people that was not as good as that of China, and the huge corruption and waste that existed in the US government. He also repeatedly mentioned the huge US fiscal deficit, believing that the US government debt has spiraled out of control. He directly supported Trump in July 2024, hoping to turn his own political beliefs into reality. For someone of Musk’s level, wealth is already just a number. To transform the US government and society, and even humanity as a whole, in the most efficient and correct way he believes, is something that can generate a great sense of achievement for him;
——Musk is essentially still a businessman, betting on Trump and also eyeing the huge orders from the US government. In the aerospace industry, Boeing is one of the biggest beneficiaries of NASA’s orders, but Boeing’s lackluster performance (sending astronauts into space and not being able to retrieve them) has made NASA a joke around the world. Musk can confidently transfer huge orders from US government agencies such as NASA to companies like SpaceX under the banner of reducing waste and improving efficiency.
It can be said that Musk’s support for Trump is not only due to mutual recognition of policy concepts, but also due to the huge interest stimulation of “capital and political alliance”. These two are intertwined and inseparable.
6) Currently, the main commonalities in policy between Trump and Musk are:
——Resolutely oppose extremely absurd “extreme political correctness” and LGBTQ movements;
——Thoroughly reforming the “deep government” (bureaucratic system) in the United States;
——Shake up the profit sharing structure within the ruling class in the United States.
7) Undoubtedly, Musk and Trump may not be able to agree on all issues. As a populist, Trump came to power with the “angry” votes of the middle and lower classes in the United States, but he himself is a big capitalist, and his relationships with other big capitalists in the United States are also intricate. Trump has never been a pure ‘idealist’, he has always been a politician, and populism is just a ‘ladder’ for him to seize power. Musk’s ultimate ideal may be to transform America, the world, or even the entire universe according to his own ideas. The nature of a businessman is a ‘ladder’ he uses to achieve this goal, betting on Trump and gaining unprecedented influence in Washington is another ‘ladder’ he uses to achieve this goal. In this sense, Musk and Trump have intersections at the level of ‘technique’, but at the level of ‘Dao’, the two have essential differences.
8) In 2018, Musk’s Tesla company, despite its popular products, was constantly in a loss making state due to limited production capacity in American factories. This continuous financial “bleeding” state has put Tesla at risk of bankruptcy for a period of time. At the beginning of 2019, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory started construction, and just 10 months later, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory was successfully put into operation. China’s unparalleled infrastructure capabilities and highly efficient government work have provided Musk and Tesla with much-needed valuable support. By 2024, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory production may reach 8-9 million vehicles, accounting for over half of Tesla’s global production. China not only “saved” Tesla’s life when Tesla was facing the critical moment of life and death, but also provided Tesla with a super factory that can generate continuous cash flow. China is also an important location for Tesla’s supply chain and a significant consumer market. That’s why Musk has repeatedly praised China. This is not only his genuine thoughts from the bottom of his heart, but also his calculation to improve relations with China. However, we must be clear that Musk is just one faction in the camp supporting Trump’s victory, and Trump is surrounded by a large number of extreme anti China politicians who want to fight a trade war and a cold war with China. Undoubtedly, due to Musk’s crucial contribution to Trump’s re-election as the President of the United States, he does not need to worry about safeguarding his own business interests. However, when we assess how much substantial impact Musk can have on Trump’s China policy, we must be very cautious. No matter how great Musk’s contribution is, Trump cannot listen to him on all issues. In this sense, Musk and Lv Buwei had much less political influence compared to their appointment as “Wenxin Marquis” in the state of Qin after the succession of the alien (Zi Chu). As for some netizens joking about including characters such as Zhao Ji (the dancer in Lv Buwei’s family, who later married a stranger and gave birth to Ying Zheng) and Luo Yi, this is just a joke and should not be taken seriously.
9) In the past six or seven years, the continuous deterioration of Sino US relations is fundamentally due to the fact that when facing various internal and external challenges, the United States does not fundamentally solve its own problems, but instead sees China as a “scapegoat” for its decline, ultimately defining China as its biggest strategic competitor and continuously containing and suppressing it. The current situation of China US relations is caused by many structural factors and is difficult to change in the short term. From this perspective, even though Musk has a great influence on Trump and has praised China, his impact on Sino US relations is limited and localized. The Trump administration is essentially anti China, which is not only a political ideology, but also a political trick used by American politicians to shift domestic conflicts and mobilize domestic people. We still need to have a clear understanding of this. Musk’s multiple identities can indeed serve as a lubricant in certain critical moments in Sino US relations; On the other hand, both China and the United States, including himself, are still in the early stages of understanding this role. In addition, Musk should also be wary of being attacked by extreme anti China factions in the United States due to his interests in China.
10) Overall, Musk only shares some similarities with Lv Buwei in successfully betting on political figures. There is a world of difference between the United States today and the state of Qin more than 2000 years ago, which determines that the relationship between Musk and Trump cannot be a complete replica and reproduction of the relationship between Lv Buwei and the alien (Zichu/Qin Zhuangxiang Wang). In four years, Trump will step down. However, under the capitalist system in the United States, four years later, Musk’s huge wealth still exists, and the “X” platform controlled by Musk still exists. At that time, Musk could easily maintain his vast network of business interests and put some of his political ideas into practice by seeking new political agents.
Musk’s leadership of the so-called ‘Government Efficiency Department’ this time is not that easy. Musk can dismiss anyone in a capricious and arbitrary manner after buying Twitter, but he simply cannot treat the vast administrative bureaucracy of the US federal government in this way. We must remember that Musk is not the ‘boss’ of these people, not even Trump. As the saying goes, ‘Iron Washington, flowing politicians and businessmen’. People in the administrative bureaucracy of the US federal government are bound to launch counterattacks when their interests are impacted. At that time, whether Musk or Trump, they will realize how difficult it is to “carry out revolution through peaceful means” in the United States.
Musk is a person with extremely high emotional intelligence. He knows how to say appropriate and tactful things in front of Chinese netizens, and he also knows how not to offend Trump. As long as he is willing, he can avoid falling out with Trump, let alone turning against him. However, as time goes by, with the end of Trump’s “reward based on merit” phase, the end of the “honeymoon period” between Trump and Musk, and Trump’s focus shifting towards more traditional issues, Musk’s influence over Trump will gradually decline, and Musk’s influence in the new US government will also gradually decrease.
A family opinion, for reference only.