On November 6, 2024, at the same time as Trump secured his victory in the election, a round of political turmoil also occurred in Germany across the Atlantic.

At 20:30 that evening, German Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Lindner from his position. Subsequently, Lindner led members of the Liberal Democratic Party to withdraw from the ruling coalition.

Six days later, Germany announced that it will hold elections on February 23 next year. The tripartite coalition government composed of the Social Democratic Party, Green Party, and Liberal Democratic Party has officially collapsed.

Since the Sholtz government came to power, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the Beixi pipeline was bombed, energy prices soared, inflation was serious, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and other crises, which constantly hit the nerves of Germans.

Influenced by the unique history and culture of each country, each country will develop a distinctive response model when facing crises. The characteristic of Germans is their desire for strong politics.

Although Germany has been trying to eliminate the strongman political color represented by Hitler worship since the end of World War II, the desire for strong leaders has become a part of Germany’s cultural DNA.

During the 80 years since World War II, Germany has had three prime ministers with terms exceeding 15 years. The combined tenure of three ultra long term chancellors, Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl, and Angela Merkel, accounts for over half of modern German history.

In contrast, weak leaders will soon be despised by the German people.

Under strong external pressure from the United States, the weak stance of the Scholz coalition government has increasingly disappointed the German people. The support rates of the three political parties have also continuously hit historic lows, with the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party even dropping to 5%, which is in danger of falling below the threshold for entering parliament (5%).

The election of Donald Trump and his statement on the Ukraine issue became the last straw that crushed the coalition government.

In contrast, the right-wing political party that strongly opposes war and immigration, the Alternative for Germany, has already reached the second highest support rate. Another left-wing political party called “Rationality and Justice”, which calls for a tough stance against the United States and opposes aid to Ukraine, has surpassed the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party in Scholz’s ruling coalition in less than a year since its establishment.

Since the end of World War II, Germans are calling for the return of strong politics with unprecedented passion.

Chapter 1: The End of the Prosperous Era

On May 26, 2017, the historic city of Taurina on the island of Sicily in Italy welcomed the most divided G7 summit in history.

The new US President Donald Trump held high the banner of “America First”, opposed globalization and climate issues, threatened to impose tariffs on goods from all countries, and demanded that allies take more responsibility for military spending, refugees and other issues.

In the face of Donald Trump’s high pressure, Britain and France at this time were embarrassed. The UK just withdrew from the EU through a national referendum in 2016 and only focused on its own interests in negotiations with the United States. France has numerous internal problems and a sluggish economy; Makron, the newly appointed president, is only 39 years old, with shallow qualifications and insufficient experience.

At this time, Merkel, who has been in charge of German politics for 12 years, became the leader against Donald Trump. Merkel’s tough stance has won the support of other countries and has become the leader of this conference.

After the meeting, Donald Trump not only did not reap any benefits, but also postponed the decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The tough Merkel has also received a lot of praise from Western media as a result, known as the EU’s ballast stone and the last hope of the free world.

This success has also given Merkel, who is seeking a fourth term, a high level of support domestically. Four days later, at a campaign rally in Bavaria, Merkel severely criticized Donald Trump’s isolationism and Britain’s “Brexit”, and said that Europe must “take its destiny in its own hands”.

Merkel’s tough attitude towards Donald Trump and the leader image of the EU speakers have won the strong support of the German people.

According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center at the time, 52% of respondents believed that Merkel could defend Germany’s interests in world affairs. The support rate of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union has also expanded to 40%, reaching the highest level since the European refugee crisis.

In more than a year after that, Donald Trump launched a series of moves to withdraw from the group, and launched a non discriminatory trade war against all countries in 2018, including Western allies including Germany.

At the critical moment, Merkel once again demonstrated a tough stance in defending Germany and European interests.

Just after the end of the G-7 Summit in 2018, a picture of Merkel and Trump appeared in the media. Leaders of the other five countries followed Merkel and seemed to be waving flags for her.

The picture that a leader of the free world is fighting against the reactionary Donald Trump Group is presented to the world.

In the face of such a tough Merkel, Donald Trump had to give in temporarily. Shortly after the photo was released, the White House Press Office released another photo with a relaxed atmosphere. Donald Trump also said on Twitter that he has a good relationship with Merkel.

However, the Donald Trump government still maintains a high-pressure policy towards Germany.

In December 2019, Donald Trump signed a sanctions bill for the company that is laying Beixi 2 pipeline, which led to the construction of Beixi 2 was interrupted for a time.

Instead of abandoning Beixi 2, Merkel turned the sanctions into Donald Trump’s attempt to suppress Germany and free Europe.

So, defending Nord Stream 2 became defending Germany’s sovereignty and the principles of the free world, giving Germany an extremely advantageous position in public opinion.

In November 2020, Joe Biden won the American election. Faced with the incoming new president, Merkel still showed a tough attitude. A month later, despite US sanctions, Nord Stream 2 resumed laying pipelines.

In order to show that the United States still supports the free world and is willing to repair relations with Germany, the Joe Biden government also had to give in to Merkel temporarily.

On May 19, 2021, the Joe Biden government announced the end of the US sanctions against Beixi -2.

However, Joe Biden’s bow did not reassure Merkel. With less than half a year left until her resignation, Merkel hopes to add another layer of insurance to the critically important Nord Stream 2 project for Germany at the end of her term.

On August 20th, Merkel arrived in Moscow for her final diplomatic mission before stepping down. Half a month later, the Beixi-2 pipeline was completed and natural gas injection began. Next, just wait for the domestic review to be completed, and Nord Stream 2 can bring 110 billion cubic meters of cheap natural gas to Germany every year, laying a century long foundation for the prosperity of Germany’s manufacturing industry.

However, with Merkel’s resignation, the weak Scholz government faced strong pressure from the United States and completely destroyed this good situation in just one year.

Chapter 2: The Cost of Weakness

On November 16, 2021, less than a month after Merkel stepped down, German regulators postponed the certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Eight days later, the Social Democratic Party, Green Party, and Liberal Democratic Party finalized a coalition agreement, with Olaf Scholz appointed as the new Prime Minister.

At the same time, the situation in Ukraine rapidly deteriorated. Pressure from the United States began to pour in from all directions and channels towards this new prime minister.

On December 9th, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called on the new prime minister to oppose Nord Stream 2 and not let it become a political tool used by Russia to influence Europe.

Under pressure, Olaf Scholz voluntarily announced three months later that the review process for Nord Stream 2 would be suspended.

This pipeline, which was built under US sanctions, was voluntarily suspended by the Scholz government without US sanctions.

However, it has been proven that Scholz’s approach of pleasing others in advance did not result in reciprocity, but rather in adding insult to injury and pressing forward step by step.

The day after Scholtz announced the order, the Joe Biden government pushed the boat along the current and imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its executives.

On September 2, 2022, the turbine of Nord Stream 1 pipeline was damaged and could not be transported back to Germany for repair, resulting in the cessation of gas supply to Pipeline 1.

On September 26th, explosions occurred simultaneously in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Overnight, Germany lost its wife and soldiers, completely losing its cheap energy from Russia, and could only purchase canned gas from the United States at high prices or second-hand oil and gas transferred from third parties.

The Scholz government remained silent throughout the pipeline explosion incident and has not announced the investigation results.

In August 2024, US media exposed Ukraine as the main culprit behind the Nord Stream pipeline explosion.

This matter could have been used as a bargaining chip for Germany to reverse its policy direction, but the Scholz government quickly accepted this answer.

Germany is now the second largest aid donor to Ukraine after the United States, and Scholz has stated that he will not stop providing aid to Ukraine due to the Nord Stream incident.

It can be said that the weak Shultz government is completely following the script of the Joe Biden government in the treatment of the Beixi pipeline, and it is not too bad to say that it is fooled around.

The ultimate cost is borne by Germany’s manufacturing industry and ordinary people.

Since the Scholz government took office 35 months ago, Germany’s manufacturing index (PMI) has been below the boom bust line (50) for 33 months.

Even in terms of assisting Ukraine, the Scholz government, despite paying the highest price, has been criticized for being too weak.

With the escalation of the Russia Ukraine situation, Scholz has repeatedly stated in public that he will not provide Ukraine with Germany’s strongest cruise missile, the Taurus, which has caused dissatisfaction among the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party in the ruling coalition, as well as widespread criticism from European countries.

On the other hand, French President Macron has repeatedly made bold statements about sending soldiers to Ukraine and even using nuclear weapons to protect Europe.

Therefore, although France’s aid to Ukraine ranks last among Western countries, European countries not only did not blame France for not being tough enough, but also tried to hold Macron back and advise him not to act impulsively.

The weakness of the Scholz government and the rapid deterioration of the German economy have led to a continuous decline in support for the ruling coalition. The nostalgia of the German people for the Merkel era and their desire for political strongmen are rapidly increasing.

According to the November poll data, the support rate of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union has risen from around 21% in 2021 to 33% today, ranking first.

The right-wing political party “Alternative for Ukraine”, which opposes aid to Ukraine, anti immigration, and advocates independence and self-reliance, has a support rate of 17% and came in second place. The Choice Party also won the parliamentary elections in Thuringia, becoming the ruling party of a local government for the first time.

The left-wing political party “Rationality and Justice Party”, which is anti war and opposed to American intervention, has only been established for less than a year and has gained 7% support, ranking fifth.

However, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party has a support rate of only 15%, and with the support of its two allies, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, the support rate is only 32%.

In the end, Donald Trump’s election and his statement will end the aid to Ukraine as soon as possible, let European countries bear more responsibilities, and become the last blow to crush the Shultz coalition government.

Chapter 3 Decision Moment

On November 1, 2024, the leader of the Free Democratic Party and then German Finance Minister, Lindner, sent an explosive 18 page document to Chancellor Scholz and Green Party Deputy Chancellor Habermann.

In the document, Lindner called on the Scholz government to make “fundamental changes” to key political decisions to “avoid harm to the German economy”.

The so-called ‘fundamental modification’ refers to the immediate cessation of various resident subsidy programs launched by the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party, as well as the immediate reduction of corporate tax rates, in order to rescue the increasingly depressed German enterprises.

Lindner’s supporters in the Liberal Democratic Party are mainly entrepreneurs and urban white-collar workers, mostly holding a liberal economic stance. The Scholz government, in order to offset the impact of losing Russia’s cheap energy on residents, continuously expanded government spending. The burden on enterprises is increasing day by day.

In October this year, even manufacturing giant Volkswagen announced plans to close at least three factories in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of employees, and shrink the size of all its remaining factories in Germany.

The policies of the Scholz government led to the loss of a large number of basic voters from the Liberal Democratic Party, with support rates dropping to 4% at their lowest point. If Lindner doesn’t make any changes, the Liberal Democratic Party is likely to miss the threshold of 5% for entering parliament in the next election.

However, the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party will not accept the withdrawal of subsidies at all, as it would also harm the voter base of both parties.

Faced with increasingly tight finances, the conflicts between the three political parties have become difficult to reconcile.

On November 6, Donald Trump announced that he would win the US general election. It is a foregone conclusion that the United States will reduce or even abandon its aid to Ukraine, which will inevitably put a heavier burden on Germany.

At 20:30 that evening, the Scholz coalition government completely overturned at a cabinet meeting. Lindner firmly stated that he would not agree to the current fiscal plan, while Scholz announced the immediate dismissal of Lindner from his position as Minister of Finance.

Subsequently, Christian Dier, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary group, announced that all cabinet members of his party would withdraw from the coalition government.

The departure of the Liberal Democratic Party marks a substantial breakdown of the coalition government. The minority parliament led by Scholz is likely to fail to pass any bills in the upcoming term.

Under internal and external difficulties, Scholz also began to show his tough side to the public. On the evening of November 6th, Scholz criticized Lindner for destroying Germany at a press conference and stated that after Trump wins the election, Germany needs to prove that it is worthy of the trust of other countries.

However, it was already too late. Shortly after Scholz’s speech, mainstream German media announced the collapse of the coalition government under the headline “Scholz announces Lindner as scapegoat”.

At the same time, all opposition parties in Germany began to unite to pressure Scholz and demand early elections. On November 12th, German President Steinmeier listened to the suggestions of leaders of various parties in Germany and scheduled early elections for February 23rd next year.

In order to salvage the party’s image in next year’s elections, Scholz also made a final attempt.

On November 15th, Scholz took the initiative to call Russian President Putin, hoping to demonstrate an independent and tough stance through this call.

The leaders of major political parties in Germany are also trying their best to establish their image as political strongmen.

Christian Democratic Union leader Mertz said that even if the United States withdraws, Germany will take responsibility for resisting Russia and safeguarding Europe, and will send the most advanced Taurus missiles to Ukraine within 24 hours of winning the election.

Another anti war line is represented by the right-wing party Alternative for the Betterment and Progress of Korea and the left-wing party Reason and Justice. Their leaders are also known for their tough stance, especially with the support of a large number of young Germans.

Regardless of which side comes to power, a weak leader will not be welcomed.

On November 20th, the German magazine Der Spiegel suddenly revealed that the Ukrainian group that planned the Nord Stream explosion had long-term connections with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States. The mastermind of the case, Roman Chervensky, had received years of training as a US agent.

Under internal and external troubles, the crisis awareness of German society has been ignited. Germany’s long suppressed desire for strongman politics is also becoming stronger.

What Germans expect is not a politician who only puts on airs, but a real and tough leader.