On the evening of November 26th local time, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement stating that the Israeli Security Cabinet had approved the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

On the same day, Lebanese caretaker government Prime Minister Mikati expressed acceptance of the agreement, which came into effect at 4:00 am local time on November 27th.

The game behind the ceasefire agreement.

The achievement of this ceasefire agreement is the result of a game of multiple forces.
Netanyahu’s expedient measure to balance the interests of various factions.
In recent times, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has continuously strengthened the ruling position of the right-wing coalition, but the result has not only failed to win widespread recognition from the domestic public, but also led to a strong backlash in Israeli social opinion and center left political forces.
In addition, Netanyahu himself is currently facing multiple pressures, including domestic judicial investigations and arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court.

At the same time, Netanyahu also hopes to ease relations with allies in the United States and Europe, and reverse the unfavorable situation of European countries’ rapidly declining attitudes towards Israel.
Therefore, Netanyahu’s decision to make a moderate compromise at this time, driven by personal political needs and the long-term interests of the far right coalition, is the best choice that aligns with his current interests.
The strategic adjustment made by the Israeli government after weighing the pros and cons.
Another major reason for the signing of this ceasefire agreement is Israel’s strategic judgment based on the current surrounding situation.
The Israeli government believes that there are too many enemies and the front line is too long, and there is not enough military force to deal with both the Gaza conflict and the Lebanon Israel conflict.

More importantly, the Israeli government cannot ignore the huge war risk posed by Iran.
On November 21st, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragorchi stated that a response to Israel’s attacks is inevitable and that the appropriate timing will be chosen to launch the “True Commitment 3” operation against Israel.
Faced with the real threat from Iran, a ceasefire with Lebanon can allow the Israeli military to recuperate and better respond to Iran’s sudden retaliation.
The power game between the US and European institutionalists and Donald Trump.
At present, Joe Biden’s remaining term of office is less than two months. Although the Democratic Party was defeated in the general election, Joe Biden still hopes to make a difference in the final power transition period.
Before moving from the White House, Joe Biden was undoubtedly attracted by the title of “Messenger of Middle East Peace”, which left him a significant political legacy. After all, during the campaign, Trump boasted about his ability to end the Middle East conflict.

As a firm promoter of European strategic autonomy and an institutional elite, Makron has always opposed Donald Trump’s “America First” policy, and has long been dissatisfied with Donald Trump’s efforts to support the populist forces of the extreme right in Europe.
This time Joe Biden joined hands with Makron to actively mediate the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, reflecting the tit for tat confrontation between the western institutional forces and the Donald Trump Group. This kind of power game and confrontation will fill the political arena of the United States and Europe in the next four years.
Is it still difficult to achieve a substantive ceasefire?
Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached between Lebanon and Israel, there are still significant obstacles to its implementation.
On the one hand, there is ongoing debate within the Israeli government over the ceasefire agreement, and domestic hawks do not agree to a ceasefire at this time. According to the Minister of National Security, Itamar bin Gevel, the ceasefire is a “historic mistake” and Israel should continue to strike Hezbollah.
On the other hand, Israel hopes to retain discretionary space and agrees that a ceasefire is only a temporary measure. If Hezbollah rebuilds its armed forces in the border areas, the Israeli military has the right to take action at any time.
Meanwhile, the United States has also chosen to continue endorsing Israel. Joe Biden said that if Hizbullah violated the terms of the ceasefire, Israel could quickly resume operations in Lebanon.
Overall, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is undoubtedly a compromise result of multiple forces intervening in the tense situation in the Middle East in the current complex geopolitical landscape.
However, in reality, the road to peace in the Middle East is still long and full of challenges.
In the future, whether this ceasefire agreement can be transformed into a more lasting peace remains to be seen.