On November 27th, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon just came into effect. However, on the same day, the war in Syria resumed.
On the morning of the 27th, Syrian anti-government forces launched a sudden attack on government military positions, occupying the second largest city and northern stronghold of Aleppo for the first time in 8 years.
Afterwards, the anti-government armed forces surged southward, targeting the Syrian capital Damascus.
In the past two days, the battle has entered a white hot stage, with the Syrian government army and anti-government armed forces repeatedly competing in the central strategic area of Hama province, and the situation has entered the most critical 48 hours.

Turbulent for over a decade.
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 and the conflict between government forces and anti-government armed groups has been ongoing for over a decade.
In 2011, influenced by the Arab Spring, the Syrian civil war broke out, and the Syrian government army engaged in a large-scale melee with Sunni anti-government armed groups such as the Sham Liberation Organization, Kurdish military forces, and terrorist forces such as the Islamic State.
Compared to the government army, the equipment of the anti-government armed forces is relatively rudimentary, and their military training level is also relatively poor.
But the anti-government armed forces have received support from multiple external forces. The United States, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and other countries have provided military assistance, financial support and political asylum to the rebels to varying degrees.
With the support of the “big brother” behind the scenes, in the years leading up to the war, the anti-government armed forces used guerrilla tactics to cause the government army to retreat one after another, and the Syrian Assad regime was on the verge of collapse.
In 2015, with Russia’s strong entry and Iran’s support, the Assad regime gradually stabilized the situation and won the dominant position.
By 2020, the Syrian government army had basically controlled 70% of the country’s territory.
But afterwards, the war reached a stalemate, and the Kurds occupied the mountains in the northeast as kings, establishing an “independent kingdom”; Anti government forces of all sizes are located in the northern border under the support of the United States and Türkiye.

Upgrade the beacon again.
This war has escalated again, with two main attacking forces.
One is the religious extremist group, the Sham Liberation Organization (HTS), which has long been entrenched in Aleppo and Idlib provinces in Syria.
Its predecessor was the Nusra Front, which operated as a branch of Al Qaeda in Syria for terrorist activities until 2016.
Therefore, the Sham Liberation Organization has been recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations, and Syria and Russia also consider it a terrorist organization.
Another one is the Syrian National Army. Their backer is Türkiye, whose organizational purpose is to eliminate the Syrian “secular regime” and Kurdish armed forces.
On the early morning of November 27th local time, with personnel from these two organizations as the main force, thousands of Syrian anti-government armed members launched a large-scale attack on Syrian government military positions west of Aleppo under mortar cover.
The Syrian government army was caught off guard. On the night of November 29th, the Syrian army’s defensive line in western Aleppo completely collapsed. On the evening of November 30th, almost the entire city of Aleppo fell.
On the noon of November 30th, another anti-government armed group drove south along the M-5 highway from Idlib, and within just 6 hours, the Syrian government army was forced back nearly 50 kilometers.
On December 1st, the Syrian government army built a defense line in the central town of Hama to resist the continued southward movement of anti-government armed groups.
Seeing that the situation was not good, Russia quickly stepped down.
On December 1st, the Russian mediation center for the Syrian conflict stated that the Russian Aerospace Forces have been deployed to help the Syrian government resist attacks from anti-government armed groups and extremist organizations.

The timing is very suspicious.
Since the signing of the ceasefire agreement in 2020, the Syrian civil war has largely remained dormant.
But why did the anti-government armed forces choose to launch a large-scale attack at this time? There are mainly two reasons.
The Syrian government is preoccupied with relying on its own resources.
Previously, the reason why the Syrian Assad government stood firm in the chaos of the Middle East and even had an advantage in the civil war was mainly due to the strong support of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi armed forces in Yemen, and other forces.
Russia has a naval base in Tartus Port, Syria, which it considers a strategic location in the Middle East.
Iran sees Assad’s Shia regime as an important part of its Middle East “resistance arc”.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi armed groups in Yemen also have close ties with the Syrian government.
However, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian Israeli conflict continue to delay, the “backers” of the Assad regime are in trouble, and their support for Syria is much weaker than before.
Russia is deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and has no time to spare; Iran continues to be threatened and suppressed by Israel, investing significant resources to assist Hamas; Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered heavy losses and recently reached a ceasefire agreement with Israel… (See also our article “Can a ceasefire really be achieved when Lebanon and Israel reach a ceasefire agreement?”)
The Syrian anti-government forces believe that this is a window of opportunity to strike the government army, so they seized the opportunity and took advantage of the situation.
The anti-government armed forces have someone backing them up.
After the outbreak of the war, the United States immediately stood up and stated that it had nothing to do with the offensive led by the Sham Liberation Organization.
Israeli media also stated that there is currently no indication that Israel has provided direct support to the Syrian rebel forces.
However, according to media reports, weapons and equipment such as American made howitzers, American made ammunition, drones, etc. appeared in the actions of the Sham Liberation Organization.
The Syrian government army also revealed that on November 29th to 30th, during the “Sham Liberation Organization”‘s fierce attack on Aleppo, communication with the Syrian army in Aleppo was interrupted, most likely due to electronic interference.
This is clearly inconsistent with the actual capabilities of the Sham Liberation Organization. Various signs indicate that there must be someone backing up behind it.
On reflection, the United States, Israel and Türkiye are all beneficiaries of renewed war.
The United States and Israel can undermine the influence of Russia and Iran in the Middle East by weakening the Syrian government. (See also the article “Which seven fronts does Netanyahu refer to in his words?”)
Türkiye is even more eager to use the war to upset the situation and lay the groundwork for attacking Kurds and intervening in Syria’s internal affairs in the future.
With the support of the “big brother” behind it, the actions of the anti-government armed forces are not difficult to understand.

On the afternoon of November 30th, after several days of silence, Syrian President Assad finally made a formal statement, stating that no matter how fierce the attacks in northern Syria may be, the Syrian government has the ability to defeat “all terrorists and their supporters”.
The international community is also highly concerned about the situation in Syria.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had telephone conversations with Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Feidan and Iran’s Foreign Minister Sergei Araghzi respectively.
The United States, France, Germany, and Britain have also issued a joint statement on the situation in Syria, calling on all parties to ease tensions, protect civilians, and infrastructure.
However, it is the Syrian people who ultimately suffer from the open knives and hidden guns between major powers.
In over a decade of turmoil and conflict, countless civilians have lost their lives and countless families have been shattered. As the war escalates again, the suffering of civilians seems far from over.