Recently, there has been a lot of chaos internationally. First, there have been serious conflicts between the Duterte family and the Marcos family in the Philippines. Duterte’s daughter publicly issued a statement saying, ‘If I am killed, I will send someone to assassinate Marcos.’ Then there was a major earthquake in the South Korean political arena
However, none of these changes were as rapid as the situation in Syria, where the Bashar al Assad government collapsed in just over a week.
On December 8th local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Syrian President Assad has relinquished his presidency and instructed the Syrian government to peacefully transfer power after negotiations with representatives of all parties involved in the Syrian conflict. Russia did not participate in the negotiations.

In fact, the downfall of the Bashar government was expected by me, but the speed of its downfall was a bit unexpected.
About a week ago, when the Syrian anti-government forces launched an attack, some people in the group had discussed this issue. Many believed that Russia and Iran would not be “indifferent” and that as long as Russia and Iran supported the Syrian government slightly, Syria would be “unaffected”. But I don’t think so.

Actually, many years ago, I believed that the Syrian government would inevitably fall!
Why do you say that?
Because the Syrian regime has been maintained by external forces since its inception, if there are problems with external support, the Syrian government will collapse!
This matter can be traced back to the period of the British Empire.
There are two very special countries in the Middle East: Iraq and Syria.
These two countries are very special, both governed by minorities: Iraq’s Shia community accounts for 63% of the total population, but Sunni is in power (Saddam was Sunni); Sunni Muslims make up 74% of the total population in Syria, but it is Shia Muslims who hold power (Bashar is Shia).

What did everyone think of when they saw this?
Yes, the UK’s’ continental balance of power policy ‘.
What should you do if you want to colonize a country?
Of course, it is to support the minority of that country and hand over state power to the minority of that country – because the minority is in power, it cannot maintain its rule solely on its own, and in this case, it must rely on you, and you can use this to maintain your colonial rule.
In the nearly 500 year history of Britain, in order to prevent the unification of the European continent, Britain “invented” a policy called the “continental balance of power policy” to prevent the unification of Europe. Its fundamental principle is that Britain always supports the weaker side of the European continent against the stronger side, in order to prevent the stronger side from unifying Europe.
This policy has been replicated by numerous great powers and widely applied in international political games, represented by the United States, Russia, France, and others.
Syria is one of the victims of the continental balance of power policy!
After the First World War, the Ottoman Empire of Türkiye was dismembered by Britain and France because of the wrong team. Therefore, Britain supported the Sunni minority in Iraq, and France supported the Shiite minority in Syria, helping those minorities to gain national political power. At that time, Iraq was called “British Iraq” and Syria was called “French Syria”.

Originally, Syria was a French colony, but during the later World War II, the Soviet Union became increasingly powerful and supported the Arabs in their fight against the European and American backed Israel. As a result, Syria took over the Soviet Union’s thigh – the supporters behind the Syrian Shia regime changed from France to Russia.
After World War II, in addition to the United States and the Soviet Union competing for global hegemony, there were also many countries competing for regional hegemony in the world. As the “hub” of the world, some people naturally want to become the regional leader in the Middle East.
In the Middle East, there were three empires with a glorious history: the Persian Empire represented by the Persians, the Arab Empire represented by the Arabs, and the Ottoman Türkiye Empire represented by the Turks.
Since these three empires are different nationalities, and the Middle East is dominated by Arabs, neither Türkiye nor Iran can carry the banner of “nationalism” to integrate the Middle East. So, they can only compete under the banner of religion.
Iran is Persian and believes in Shia Islam, while Syria is ruled by Shia Islam. As a result, Iran and the Syrian government have a common interest – the Syrian government wants to use Iran to maintain its rule, and Iran wants to use Syria to confront Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia suffered a significant loss of power and was struggling to support Syria on its own. Therefore, Russia and Iran jointly supported the Syrian government. In 2011, the Syrian civil war broke out, and with the strong support of Russia and Iran, the Syrian government barely survived.
In this process, we must not forget another country: Türkiye.
Türkiye is Turkic (at least in their own opinion) and believes in Sunni. The whole Middle East region was once Türkiye’s sphere of influence, so Türkiye naturally wants to dominate the Middle East again.

How can Türkiye dominate the Middle East?
As a Turk, Türkiye can’t fight for hegemony in the Middle East under the banner of “nationalism”. It can only fight for hegemony in a religious way, while 74% of Syrians believe in Sunni (Türkiye also believes in Sunni).
Since Türkiye borders Syria directly, Türkiye has supported Sunnis in Syria and armed them – these people are called “anti-government forces”.
Türkiye supports the Sunnis in Syria, which has caused serious conflicts with Russia and Iran, because Russia and Iran support the Syrian government dominated by Shiites. So Türkiye and Russia almost fought.
After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Russia bombed the rebels supported by Türkiye, and Türkiye shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter plane and a Mi-8 helicopter, also known as the “11 · 24 Russian fighter plane was shot down event”.
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In addition, Saudi Arabia, as an Arab, also believes in Sunni Islam, but Syria, which is also an Arab, has come together with Iran, which believes in Shia Islam. Saudi Arabia is naturally very dissatisfied and also wants to overthrow the Shia regime in Syria. So, Sunni Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia also supported the Sunni anti-government forces in Syria.
In addition, the United States and its affiliates have also been deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, supporting Kurdish armed groups. Moreover, the religious atmosphere in the Middle East is very strong, and various extreme religious forces are also playing tricks in it, which makes the situation in Syria exceptionally complex, with all major forces deeply involved.
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In name, the Syrian regime is controlled by Assad, but in reality, the scope of control that the Syrian government can have is not large.
In 2016, Russia took advantage of the chaotic period of the US election (when Trump and Hillary were fighting fiercely) and sent a large number of troops. At the same time, Iran also sent a large number of Shia armed forces (Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) to help the Syrian government capture the strategic town of Aleppo and maintain the Assad regime.
Although the Syrian Shiite regime was saved by Russia and Iran, the anti-government armed forces in Syria were not eliminated – the Sunni armed forces supported by Türkiye retreated to Idlib, and Türkiye strongly opposed the bombing of the region by Russia and Iran. Finally, Türkiye and Russia reached an agreement that the Russian gendarmerie and Türkiye soldiers would conduct joint patrols on the M4 road and plan to establish a security corridor on the road.
There are many armed elements active near the M4 highway, most of whom are loyal to Türkiye.
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Now you can see that Türkiye will benefit most from the collapse of the Syrian government.
So another question arises: although the Syrian government does not have much control over its territory, they mostly control densely populated areas with the support of Russia and Iran. Why did it collapse so quickly?
There are two main reasons:
Firstly, the ruling party of the Syrian government is Shia, while the majority of the Syrian people believe in Sunni Islam, and Assad’s governing foundation is unstable;
Your family has 100 people, and another family has only 10 people, but they rule over you. Will you submit?
This is what I mean by ‘if the Syrian government loses strong external support, then the anti-government armed forces will continue to fight more and more’.
Secondly, Russia and Iran are deeply mired in the quagmire of war and are unable to assist the Syrian government army on their own.
Since the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War, Russia has been dragged into the quagmire of war, with a large number of troops and weapons deployed to the front line between Russia and Ukraine. Where else can there be surplus troops and weapons to help the Assad government?
Similarly, Iran has also been restrained by Israel, and a large number of troops have been used to deal with Israel (Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shia armed groups, etc. are constantly attacking Israel, while Israel, with the support of the United States, has consumed a large number of Iranian forces and weapons and ammunition).
The internal rule of Syria was already unstable, coupled with the loss of external support. With the counterattack of the anti-government armed forces, there were anti-government forces everywhere. Not only did the people stand on the side of the anti-government, but even the government army gave up resistance.
In fact, Iran and Russia did not choose to “lie flat”. Iran sent Iraqi Shia armed groups, Lebanese Hezbollah, and others to support the Syrian government forces, while Russia also bombed Syrian anti-government armed groups. However, there is no turning back – the civilians in the Syrian government controlled areas have defected, and the Syrian government forces have given up resistance. Relying solely on Shia armed groups and Russian bombing cannot solve the problem.
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Modern history tells us that any country that wants to support another country’s armed forces through military means will inevitably fail in the end.
During the Vietnam War, the US military supported the South Vietnamese government but ultimately suffered a disastrous defeat, contributing to the infamous “Saigon moment” of the collapse – North Vietnam unified South Vietnam, and in just 55 days defeated over 1 million main troops of the Republic of Vietnam supported by the US and approximately 1.5 million civil defense forces led by Saigon.
During the Afghanistan War, the US military supported the Afghan government, but ultimately suffered a disastrous defeat, contributing to a major defeat comparable to the “Saigon moment” – the Taliban had only 60000 soldiers, while the US armed Afghan government army had over 300000 troops and was equipped with a large number of advanced US weapons. However, the Taliban almost defeated the US supported government army without firing a single shot.
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Without the support of the people, having the most troops and advanced weapons is useless.
The so-called ‘falling like a mountain in defeat’ means this.
There is no doubt that Türkiye has gained the most from this great change in Syria, and Russia and Iran have suffered the most.
Perhaps some people may be concerned about China.
Yes, Assad has a good relationship with China, but so what?
We in China have never interfered in the internal affairs of other countries, nor do we have military bases in any country (except for a security base in Djibouti), nor have we sent troops to participate in civil wars in other countries
We in China believe in peace and development, and we bring justice and reconstruction to the world, not destruction and turmoil. Therefore, even if the Sunni in Syria takes power, they still need our strong infrastructure, cheap goods, and justice in the country.