After Yoon Seok-youl died abstractly, I saw many people say categorically that Yoon Seok-youl is 100% doomed, and they are all wondering who is the next president of South Korea. However, in fact, things have changed in the past two days.
I want to say that Yoon Seok-youl may not be finished. After all, Yoon Seok-youl is the most pro American president of South Korea for so many years, and it is rare to have one.
Now, things have indeed taken shape. Look at this news below.
On December 5, the National Power Party held a collective meeting and unanimously adopted a decision to oppose the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-youl. One key detail was that Han Dongxun, the head of the National Power Party, also opposed the impeachment.
You should know that on the early morning of December 4th, when the parliament voted to lift martial law, Han Dongxun, along with 18 members of the National Power Party, voted in favor. So many people naturally think that since you are against martial law, you must be in favor of impeaching Yoon Seok-youl.
As a result, he objected. After a few hours, he asked Yoon Seok-youl to stop his presidential function, which seemed to be in favor of impeachment. After a while, that is, on December 6, Han Dongxun and Yoon Seok-youl held a meeting. That’s the news above.
What does Han Dongxun mean by doing this? Do you agree or disagree? If he agrees, he should not see Yoon Seok-youl again, but his attitude is obviously not like to agree. If you don’t want to agree, why did you oppose martial law and stand on the side of the Democratic Party in the first place?
You look confused, right? To put it simply, it’s two words: profit.
There are now three big brother figures in the Korean political arena, one is President Yoon Seok-youl, one is Lee Jae ming, the head of the Common Democratic Party, and the other is Han Dongxun, the head of the National Power Party. Han Dongxun is not as extreme as Yoon Seok-youl and belongs to the constitutional right. Because of this, Han Dongxun and Yoon Seok-youl are not very confrontational.
Over the years, people have both loved and hated Yoon Seok-youl. Many of Yoon Seok-youl’s abstract operations always lead to Han Dongxun being scolded with him. It is impossible not to want to overthrow Yoon Seok-youl. But right, Han Dongxun is definitely an old bird in the political arena. He only sees the gains and losses of cold interests. Personal gratitude and resentment should be put down.
If Yoon Seok-youl is overthrown, who will be the next president? There is a high probability that it is Li Zaiming, after all, Li Zaiming’s popularity is too great, especially on the night of martial law, he led the way to climb the wall and enter the parliament, becoming the key to reversing the martial law and making his popularity skyrocket. At this time, when Yoon Seok-youl was impeached, Han Dongxun won over Li Zaoming?
It’s impossible, impossible at all.
Han Dongxun is not a fool to do such a cheap political enemy thing. How could he do it.
However, the negative impact of martial law is indeed significant. If we want to help Yin Xiyue, it’s not worth it without big chips. Therefore, he keeps wavering, opposing impeachment at times and supporting impeachment at other times. In fact, he is expressing his attitude that anything can be discussed.
So you see, Yoon Seok-youl met with him immediately. If the offer is high enough, maybe Han Dongxun will really be willing to protect him, which is very critical, because in fact, most members of the National Power Party do not oppose martial law.
That night, there were only 190 votes, most of which were from the Democratic Party, while the National Power Party had only 18 votes. In total, there were 300 members of parliament, which means that most of the National Power Party members did not attend at all.
Not attending itself is an attitude.
Impeachment requires 200 votes, and although the Democratic Party has an absolute majority, with allies, it is not enough. At least 8 traitors need to appear on the side of the National Power Party. Unfortunately, within the National Power, the faction that does not confront Yoon Seok yeol is led by Han Dong hoon.
The 8 traitor votes can only come from his faction. If he decides to protect Yin Xiyue, it will be difficult for 8 traitors to appear, so Han Dongxun’s attitude is the key to the success of impeachment.
More importantly, keeping Yoon Seok-youl is quite beneficial to Han Dongxun. Why?
Because Li Zaiming also has a case. On November 15th, Li Zaiming was already sentenced to one year in prison. Although it is not yet the final verdict, there is a glimmer of hope. According to South Korean law, individuals who have been sentenced will automatically lose their parliamentary qualifications. Originally, this case put Li Zaiming in a difficult situation, but who knew that Yin Xiyue had come to self destruct.
Instantly pulled Li Zaiming back from the brink of death.
If Han Dongxun guarantees Yoon Seok-youl, what will Yoon Seok-youl do? It must be killing Li Zaiming and striving for a final verdict. Yoon Seok-youl’s reputation is so bad that he can’t be saved. If Li Zaoming goes in, they will die together? Assuming this is the case, do you think Han Dongxun benefits from being a fisherman?
There are only three giants in politics, the first two will perish together, leaving only one Han Dongxun. Is the next president still uncertain? If Han Dongxun protects Yoon Seok-youl, please don’t be surprised. It is completely in your own interests. Of course, the key is what price Yoon Seok-youl gives. If he is stingy at this time, there is no way.
I know that many people will say that you are not afraid of being abandoned by South Korean citizens when you stand in line with Yoon Seok-youl at this time? However, to be frank, this is what comes from not understanding South Korea and the basic rules of politics.
Excuse me, did Mr. Trump abandon him when he attacked the Capitol Hill? The Republican institutionalists want to abandon him, but the red neck is the basic plate of the Republican Party. Abandoning Mr. Trump is a political suicide act that renounces the basic plate.
Even if you commit political suicide, supporters on the left side will not vote for you, and there are not many centrists originally. Their few votes cannot make up for the loss of the basic foundation. Supporting impeachment has no benefits and may even result in losing the foundation. Although opposition to impeachment may be criticized by the left, it can preserve the fundamentals and secure the future.
Therefore, after the Capitol Hill incident, the Republican institutionalists held their noses against impeachment, and only by keeping Mr. Trump alive could Mr. Trump return today.
And the social situation in South Korea is similar to that in the United States, why don’t most members of the National Power Party come to the parliament to participate in the martial law resolution vote? Because the left and the right have long been highly antagonistic, the left and the middle are against martial law, but among the right, there are many who agree with martial law, and people still think Yoon Seok-youl is not strong enough.
I dare not even fire a gun, it’s too weak.
If you were a member of the National Power Party, would you dare to support impeachment? You can agree, stating that defending the constitution comes at the cost of being abandoned by the basic camp. You don’t have to choose the next term, and there will soon be extremist factions replacing you. The benefits of opposing impeachment are very obvious – maintaining the right-wing base and continuing to be a member of parliament.
As for the leftists and centrists, there’s no need to worry too much. Firstly, the left is unlikely to vote for right-wing lawmakers no matter what. Similarly, right-wing masses will not vote for left-wing legislators, and neither side will waste time on the other;
Secondly, the centrists are highly variable, changing day by day. Now that martial law has occurred and they are leaning towards the Democratic Party, who knows if something else will happen tomorrow that will make them change their choice again and lean towards the National Power Party? The next congressional election is in 2028, who knows how much can happen in these four years?
Do you think that if martial law is imposed, it will lose the support of the centrist people, and we can only stick to the basic foundation without further expansion? Then look across the ocean and you’ll know.
After the Huishan Incident, countless people also said that although Wang was able to maintain his red neck base, he could not win the support of the middle camp, so there is no hope for 2024. The Democratic Party has the support of the middle camp and can win by lying down. However, the fact is on the contrary. This year, Mr. Trump has taken all swing states, and many centrists are supporting Mr. Trump.
It has been proven that the centrists are like wall grass, just like every day.
Therefore, if Yoon Seok-youl has not been impeached, it should not be too surprised. Politics is like this. You think it is dirty, but the objective law is like this. Politicians without basic skills cannot go on.
Maintaining the fundamentals has always been the top priority.
