The impeachment case did not pass! What will Yoon Seok-youl’s fate be?

On the evening of December 7 local time, the South Korean National Assembly held a plenary meeting to vote on the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-youl.
After the vote against the “Jin Jianhite Procuratorate”, the overwhelming majority of the members of the ruling party of South Korea walked out to boycott the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-youl, which led to the impeachment was ultimately not passed.
Yoon Seok-youl survived a disaster and continued to exercise his presidential power.

Impeachment offensive, middle ground reversal.
According to the South Korean Constitution, once an impeachment motion is submitted to the plenary session of the South Korean National Assembly for a vote, it must be approved by at least two-thirds, or 200 or more members present.
At present, the ruling National Power Party of South Korea holds 108 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition party holds 192 seats. If the opposition party wants to impeach the president smoothly, they need to obtain 8 votes from the ruling party camp.
However, on the eve of the plenary session of the National Assembly, the ruling party of South Korea, the National Power Party, changed its previous ambiguous statement and stated that it would oppose the impeachment of the president and veto the “Kim Geun hye prosecution” involving the president’s wife.
In the end, the opposition party failed to pass the impeachment case against Yoon Seok-youl when most of the ruling party members withdrew.

Due to the fact that the rejected bill cannot be resubmitted during the same session, the opposition party can only wait until the regular parliament ends on December 10th to convene an interim parliament if they want to propose an impeachment motion.
This also means that Yoon Seok-youl has a chance to breathe temporarily.
Whether to impeach or not, self-interest is paramount.
The reason why the ruling party changed its mind on the spot and risked their lives to protect “Yin” is not complicated.
The ruling faction compromised for profit.
The ruling party is concerned that if Yoon Seok yeol is impeached, the ruling party will also lose its governing position, so protecting Yoon Seok yeol is at least not a “last resort”.
At the same time, there are numerous factions within the ruling party, and ‘there is a party within the party’. Forcefully impeaching them may lead to intensified internal conflicts, trigger divisions, and affect the unity and stability of the party.
Suddenly, no one was available.
At present, it is difficult for the ruling party to find a suitable candidate who can replace Yoon Seok-youl in the short term and has enough ability and influence to compete with the opposition Common Democratic Party.
Therefore, the ruling party can only choose to temporarily keep Yoon Seok-youl, so as to gain time to integrate party resources, cultivate and launch more competitive candidates.
Key figures turn around in the face of adversity.
The leader of the ruling party, Han Dongxun, is a key figure in the success or failure of impeachment.
Previously, the discord between Han Yin and Han Yin was no longer a secret. On December 7th, Han Dongxun also publicly stated that it is inevitable for Yin Xiyue to step down as soon as possible.
However, when the time came to vote, Han Dongxun might have figured it out. It might be the best solution for him and his party to use the impeachment case to suppress Yoon Seok-youl without “killing” him.
Therefore, a last-minute reversal was staged.

What is the prospect of ‘Tai Chi Sick Tiger’?
Although the presidential impeachment failed, it was not a smooth road to wait for Yoon Seok-youl.
The challenge of governance has escalated again.
The impeachment storm has seriously damaged Yoon Seok-youl’s political image, and his administration in the remaining term of office will face greater challenges and resistance.
It can be predicted that the opposition parties and South Korean people will continue to attack Yoon Seok-youl. How long he can stay in this position is still unknown.
The political turmoil has worsened.
South Korea will continue to face the dilemma of “small government and large opposition”, and the conflict between the ruling party and the opposition party will intensify, posing more obstacles to policy implementation.
The division within the National Power Party has intensified, and it cannot be ruled out that Yin Xiyue will “settle accounts after autumn” and eliminate dissidents. A bloody storm may be coming soon.
The social crisis is intensifying again.
The political chaos in South Korea is like a long-lasting storm, rooted in the complex soil of the political system, the disorderly expansion of the power of the chaebols, and the strong impact of social contradictions.
Therefore, no matter what the end of Yoon Seok-youl, the chaos in South Korea will emerge in endlessly.
But the power game will inevitably accelerate internal friction, and these political elites only care about fighting each other, with no time to address the fundamental interests and concerns of the South Korean people.
The frequent occurrence of the ‘Blue House Curse’ is due to not playing the ‘game of power’ well or neglecting the rights of the people. This is worth considering carefully in the South Korean political arena.

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