Yin Xiyue’s 6-hour martial law has become a joke, which undoubtedly means that his political life is facing a Waterloo. If we don’t limit ourselves to the Yin Xiyue incident itself, we can easily see that Yin Xiyue’s farce can actually be called the Yin Xiyue phenomenon, and it is a common phenomenon emerging in the entire Western camp. The essence behind it is that America’s allies are stirring up a wave of anti American sentiment.
It is true that Yin Xiyue is a staunch pro American, but he is pro Joe Biden government, not necessarily Mr. Trump government. The coming into power of the Mr. Trump government means universal tariffs on the world, and also means extortion of allies’ military expenditure. The Koreans have calculated by themselves. After Mr. Trump takes office, South Korea’s trade with the United States may decline by 55%. At the same time, it may also face that either the United States withdraws its troops from South Korea, or South Korea must pay up to 2% of its GDP for military spending. This is the fundamental reason for the political turmoil in South Korea, where Yoon Seok yeol had to declare martial law and then was forced to lift it.
With the release of the US election results, America’s allies are facing a choice of either or. This has directly led to any western government that has followed the Joe Biden administration in the past four years, and now has to face the impact of the domestic anti American tide, which is extremely serious.
The Japanese are very smart, not only did they kill Abe early, but they also replaced Kishida early, making full preparations for the face change of the United States. This preparation is not about how to continue catering to the United States, but about preparing in advance for being abandoned by the United States and beginning to embrace neighboring countries and the Eurasian continent.
Yin Xiyue obviously could not change his face in a short time, so he had to continue the political line of the Joe Biden government, meet the defense minister of Ukraine before the Joe Biden government left office, and expressed that he would further support Ukraine. The consequence of doing so is the situation we have already seen, where martial law must be forcibly lifted, followed by waiting for impeachment and trial.
There is not much difference between Europe and South Korea, both of which cannot turn the corner at the moment, and the consequences are similar to those of South Korea. France and Germany, the two largest countries in the European Union, have also been forced to dissolve their governments on budget grounds.
Please note that the direct reason why Yin Xiyue announced martial law is that the 2025 budget of Yin Xiyue’s government was vetoed by the opposition majority parliament, which undoubtedly means that in 2025, South Korea cannot pay high protection fees as required by Mr. Trump, and the United States may also have to withdraw its troops from South Korea. Once such a situation arises, it will undoubtedly take the life of Yin Xiyue, a pro American politician who regards the United States as his father. Yoon Seok yeol attempted to paralyze the parliament through martial law in order to prolong his political life, but he clearly underestimated the power of the South Korean opposition and was too confident in the support of the US military for his martial law measures. At present, the US military is on the eve of Mr. Trump’s great settlement, and everyone is in danger. How can we support Yin Xiyue’s intention and courage to carry out a military coup?
Consistent with the miraculous situation in South Korea, the new French government, which has only been in office for three months, also experienced a situation where its budget was not passed in parliament. What is even more serious than South Korea is that the new French government was ousted from office while its budget was not passed.
The government of the traffic light alliance in Germany, another major EU country, had to announce early elections on February 23 next year because the 2025 budget was not passed in parliament. This undoubtedly means that the German ruling government may face the possibility of having to step down due to the budget proposal.
The EU and South Korea, of course, are the most steadfast allies of the United States. Why is it that after the election results in the United States, the political turmoil and even subversion happen to be caused by the staunch allies of the United States, and it is all due to the political earthquake triggered by the 2025 budget?
The reason is actually not complicated. Although the Joe Biden government did not ask its allies to increase military budget spending, it asked them to unconditionally support the Ukrainian war. Although Mr. Trump does not want war, and even promises to end the Russia Ukraine war within 24 hours after taking office, Mr. Trump has a more explicit requirement on the military expenditure of allies: the military expenditure budget of all allies must reach more than 2% of their GDP. What does Mr. Trump want to do when he asks his allies to expand military expenditure instead of fighting?
What Mr. Trump wants to do is that when the United States garrisons its allies, they must pay. How much do you want to pay?
2% of GDP.
Of course, this 2% of GDP includes purchasing US military equipment, but more importantly, paying protection fees to US troops. To put it simply, it doesn’t matter whether or not to buy American weapons. As long as there are American troops stationed, protection fees must be paid. The standard for protection fee is very clear, which is 2% of GDP.
As a businessman, Mr. Trump is smart. Every ally pays 2% of its GDP as protection fee. What does that mean?
Let’s do a simple calculation of the account. The EU’s GDP is approximately $18.35 trillion, of which 2% is $367 billion; Japan’s GDP is $4.21 trillion, of which 2% is $85.2 billion; The GDP of the UK is $3.34 trillion, of which 2% is $66.8 billion; South Korea’s GDP is approximately $1.7 trillion, of which 2% is $34.2 billion; Australia’s GDP is $1.72 trillion, of which 2% is $34.4 billion; Canada’s GDP is $2.14 trillion, of which 2% is $428. Not to mention other countries, just these staunch allies of the United States, according to Mr. Trump’s requirements, can pay US $630 billion in annual protection fees to the United States.
The US military spending for 2023 is $916 billion. The incoming US Secretary of Efficiency, Elon Musk, has stated that he will reduce US military spending by at least $100 billion after taking office. If the allies of the United States can contribute $630 billion and the United States itself reduces it by another $100 billion, this means that the US military expenditure can be reduced from the current $916 billion to $186 billion (916-6300-1000). After calculating such a number, do you feel surprised and lose your chin?
If it can really be achieved, the United States may really come back to life, because the collapse of US bonds and the US dollar could really be avoided.
Whether Mr. Trump can do so depends on how determined and capable it is. In fact, Mr. Trump’s bottom card is simple. He will withdraw without paying protection fees. Withdrawing troops can also save huge military expenditures for overseas troops, although it may not necessarily save $630 billion, at least it can significantly reduce military spending.
As long as you can understand Mr. Trump’s economic account, you can understand the reasons for the political earthquake in Japan, South Korea, Germany and France. France does not have a US military presence and originally did not need to pay any protection fees, but due to the binding of the European Union and NATO, it had to passively pay protection fees. Needless to say, Germany, Japan and South Korea are among the top three US troops stationed overseas. If they do not pay protection fees, what will Mr. Trump do?
Whether to pay protection fees or use the money from protection fees to develop one’s military strength is clearly a practical issue facing Germany, Japan, South Korea, and other US allies. The pro American forces represented by Yin Xiyue are certainly more willing to pay protection fees, but which country does not have its own national self-esteem?
Especially in the current context of unprecedented changes, the force representing national pride can easily gain the upper hand in political struggles. The occurrence of domestic political earthquakes in Germany, France, and South Korea due to the 2025 budget has fully demonstrated this point. Essentially, this is a full demonstration that the anti American forces in these countries have begun to gain a clear advantage.
Although there was no budget issue in Japan, there were earlier changes in political power in Germany and South Korea, mainly due to the fact that Japan still has an emperor and is a hereditary feudal system. Political elites understood the changes in the world order earlier and were able to respond earlier.
Any form of isolated analysis of Yin Xiyue’s martial law farce is meaningless because it is not an isolated event in itself. To understand the great changes, one must have a broad perspective, otherwise it is like blindly feeling an elephant.