Recently, the “palace intrigue” at the highest level of power in the Philippines has been staged, quickly attracting global attention.

On November 23rd, major media outlets in the Philippines published heavyweight news: “Vice President Sarah Duterte threatened to assassinate President Marcos

Soon Marcos stepped forward and stated that the assassination threat was “extremely shocking”, vowing to “uphold the rule of law”.

On November 26th, the Philippine National Bureau of Investigation issued a subpoena to Sarah, requiring her to come to the bureau for investigation before the 29th. The next day, the Philippine National Police filed a formal lawsuit against Sarah and several others.

If the previous disputes between the two political families, Marcos and Duterte, were still hidden beneath the ice, then this incident has completely exposed the accumulated conflicts and grievances between the two families.

Family politics has a long history.

Political familialization is a major characteristic of the political structure in the Philippines.

Since the end of the 19th century, the United States has gained control of the Philippines from Spain, continued to implement colonial rule in the Philippines, and followed the example of the Spanish, mainly relying on the local elite to maintain management.

This move has led to the proliferation of local strongmen in the Philippines, with nearly 200 political families maneuvering and weaving a network of local elites, firmly controlling state power from the central to the local level.

The four major families of Marcos, Duterte, Arroyo, and Aquino, who took turns controlling the political arena, all formed during this period.

In history, the Arroyo family had a father daughter president, the Aquino family had a mother son president, and the father of the current president Marcos also held the highest power in the 1960s and 1980s.
Meanwhile, family relationships are ubiquitous in the parliament and various provinces and cities, and some important positions are often controlled by the same family for decades.
Due to term limits, Philippine authorities often support relatives to take over power and achieve the continuation of family power.
The alliance has broken down and internal conflicts have escalated.
The alliance has broken down.
Two years ago, when Duterte stepped down as the President of the Philippines, the Marcos and Duterte political families formed a new power alliance.
Through a political alliance, Duterte supported Marcos’ election as the new president in the 2022 Philippine general election, on the condition that his daughter Sarah serve as vice president and defense minister, continuing the political power of the Duterte family.

However, after taking office as the President of the Philippines, Marcos quickly turned against him and refused to assign the position of Defense Secretary to Sarah as promised, instead appointing her as the Secretary of Education.
As a result, the political alliance between the two major families began to break down.
Marcos’ counterattack calculation.
On November 23rd, Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sarah, announced at a press conference that she had arranged for an assassin to assassinate President Marcos, his wife, and cousin if she was killed.
Sarah also said that the current situation is reminiscent of the assassination of Senator Aquino, a staunch critic of Marcos, at the airport in 1983.
As soon as this statement was made, it quickly ignited public opinion and revealed that the conflict between the Marcos and Duterte families has become a life and death struggle, with water and fire at odds.
The root cause of this outcome is Marcos’ intention to monopolize power, completely eliminate the influence of the Duterte family, and achieve a monopoly in Philippine politics.
For this reason, Marcos conducted a “major overhaul” of the security personnel around Sarah, weakening her safety and security.

Marcos also instructed his cousin, House Speaker Romulus, to cut Sarah’s Vice Presidential Office budget by nearly two-thirds and launch an investigation into Sarah’s alleged embezzlement of public funds.

During the investigation in the House of Representatives, Sarah’s confidant and Vice President’s Office Director Lopez was accused of obstructing the investigation and contempt of the House, and was detained in the House Detention Center.
Subsequently, the House of Representatives decided to transfer Lopez to a women’s prison.
On November 23rd, Sarah publicly accused the House transfer order of “intentional homicide” in order to exert maximum pressure on Lopez to obtain the desired “evidence”.

At the same time, Marcos also aimed his gun at Duterte himself, intending to use the power of the International Criminal Court to send Duterte to prison under the pretext of “violating human rights in the war on drugs”.
With a combination of punches, Marcos has cornered Duterte and his daughter, and the power struggle between the two sides has been completely exposed.
The upgrade of the internal battle is becoming increasingly intense.
Faced with the crisis situation, Duterte personally stepped down and launched a political counterattack against Marcos.
On October 7th, 79 year old Duterte announced his “comeback” and ran for mayor of his hometown of Davao City. Davao City was also the stronghold of power for Duterte before he served as the national leader from 1998 to 2016.
On the evening of November 25th, Duterte delivered a speech on his Facebook page, emphasizing that the Philippine government is now fragmented and only the military can correct the problem.
He called on the military to reconsider whether to continue supporting Marcos and criticized his drug addiction, while also hoping that the military would intervene in the current situation to protect the constitution.

Since the split between the two major families, this is the first time Duterte has hoped to use military force to strike Marcos, and the power struggle between the two political families in the Philippines has entered a white hot stage.
From this perspective, Marcos had already secretly planted a desire for counterattack and miscalculation, and choosing the treacherous Marcos has become the most regrettable thing for the Duterte family.

Betrayal, dance with beauty.
In the power struggle in the Philippines, there has always been an invisible hand pushing forward, and that is the United States.
The United States is attempting to achieve its strategic goals in the Indo Pacific region by supporting the Marcos family. After taking office, Marcos quickly adopted a pro American and anti China foreign policy, completely becoming a spokesperson for American interests.
The true independence of the Philippines began with the expulsion of the US military. However, now Marcos has welcomed back the former colonizers.
Create incidents and provoke China.
Since taking office, Marcos, backed by the Americans, has frequently provoked trouble on the South China Sea issue, openly claiming that China’s threat to the Philippines continues to grow.

The Philippines has frequently provoked me on issues related to islands and reefs, including China’s Huangyan Island and Ren’ai Reef, and has attempted to reinforce the illegal “beaching” of warships on Ren’ai Reef into a permanent facility.
The Philippines even introduced the so-called “maritime area law” and “archipelagic sea lanes law”, in an attempt to illegally incorporate most of the islands and reefs and related sea areas of Huangyan Island and the Nansha Islands into the Philippine maritime area, and solidify the illegal award of the “South China Sea Arbitration Case” in the form of legislation.
This behavior seriously violates China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, making the regional situation even more tense.
Flattery towards beauty ultimately leads to abandonment.
On November 19th, nearly two weeks after Trump was elected as the new president of the United States, Marcos finally had the opportunity to speak with Trump.
For Donald Trump, who has always followed the principle of “America first”, the Marcos government is nothing but cannon fodder to curb China’s development.

Marcos completely tying himself to the American tank is a short-sighted and dangerous choice that will only bring disaster to the Philippines.
The continued intensification of the power struggle between these two major families in the Philippines is likely to reshape the domestic political landscape and foreign policy, and even have an impact on the regional situation.
Let’s wait and see how the situation develops in the future.